Weekend Market Report-8/23/26-The Fed’s Weird Problem, and Wednesday Means Everything

 

Last week (Aug. 17–21, 2026) delivered a bumpy close for U.S. equities: a Friday rebound couldn’t erase weekly losses driven by rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and lingering Middle East uncertainty.

On Friday, the Dow rose 517.80 points (0.98%) to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 gained 33.21 points (0.43%) to 7,674.37, and the Nasdaq advanced 113.29 points (0.44%) to 26,180.46. For the full week, however, the S&P 500 fell about 1.43%, the Nasdaq dropped roughly 2.05%, and the Dow slipped 0.85%. That snapped three-week winning streaks for the S&P and Nasdaq; the Dow posted its second consecutive weekly decline. The Russell 2000 also declined by about 1.65%.

Pressure came mainly from the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.74%, while the 30-year yield briefly touched levels not seen since 2007 (around 5.3%). Geopolitical tensions (particularly U.S.-Iran dynamics) helped push crude higher—Brent rose more than 6% on the week, and WTI climbed over 5%—stoking inflation concerns. Mixed retail earnings (Walmart’s miss stood out) added to the caution, though materials and healthcare showed relative strength on Friday, and crypto-related names benefited from Bitcoin’s sharp rebound.

Nvidia’s Saturday price-hike news

Over the weekend (Saturday, Aug. 22), Nvidia notified some of its largest customers of price increases of more than 15% for AI servers containing its chips. The hikes, driven by soaring memory (DRAM/HBM) costs, are expected to apply to systems shipping early next year and will affect configurations including the flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell platforms. Server builders supplying big cloud operators have already begun passing the news along. Nvidia itself has not publicly confirmed the details outside normal channels.  MU, DRAM, and SKHY could benefit from this announcement.

This underscores the intense demand (and cost pressures) still surrounding AI infrastructure heading into the company’s next earnings report.

What to expect next week (Aug. 24–28)

Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 2027 results (after the close on Wednesday, Aug. 26) will be the clear centerpiece. Consensus is looking for continued strong growth (estimates have hovered around the $2+ EPS and high-$80s-to-low-$90s billion revenue range in recent tracking). Guidance on data-center demand, product ramps, margins amid higher memory costs, and any commentary on the broader AI spending cycle will likely set the near-term tone for tech and the broader market. Other notable reports the same day include Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and HP.

On the macro side, Wednesday also brings the second reading of Q2 GDP, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE), and personal income/spending data. Tuesday features consumer confidence and housing figures. These releases will feed directly into the rate narrative.

Rates and Jackson Hole remain front and center. The federal funds target is still 3.50%–3.75%. The July FOMC minutes showed that several participants favored a hike at that meeting, and many indicated that further tightening could be needed if inflation does not continue to cool. Elevated oil prices and the recent spike in yields keep the debate alive. The Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday, with Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak (likely Friday). Markets will parse any signals on the inflation outlook, the path of policy, and how the Fed is weighing growth versus price pressures. No rate decision is due next week, but the combination of data + Warsh’s remarks could shift pricing for a possible move later in the year.

Overall, expect heightened focus on AI leadership (via Nvidia) and the rates/inflation path. Last week’s yield-driven pullback leaves the market sensitive to both. A solid Nvidia report and contained inflation readings could help stabilize sentiment; any disappointment on either front risks extending the recent caution.

Next Week

1. August CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday 2. July New Home Sales data – Tuesday 3. July PCE Inflation data – Wednesday 4. US Q2 2026 GDP data – Wednesday 5. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings – Wednesday 6. August MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday 7. August MI Inflation Expectations data .

The market could display some choppiness, perhaps some paralysis, until we get through the NVDA earnings number after the close on Wednesday.  We have seen this before.

More this week, but a few names setting up include USAR, FROG, and OMDA.

See you in the morning.