Weekend Market Report: Near Records, Sector Splits, and a Busy Week Ahead
The market closed out another solid week with the major indexes finishing higher and hovering just off record territory. The S&P 500 gained roughly 1.2 percent to finish near 7811, the Dow rose about 0.9 percent, and the Nasdaq added around 0.6 percent. Small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 finishing lower. It was a constructive week overall, but the surface calm hid sharp divergences underneath.
Defensive and rate-sensitive areas led the charge. Utilities and consumer staples performed well, while cell tower operators were standouts after the SpaceX spectrum news. Crown Castle, American Tower, and SBA Communications all posted strong gains as investors positioned for more infrastructure demand. Moderna and Humana also surged in healthcare. On the flip side, semiconductors and related hardware lagged. Arm, Teradyne, and Intel came under pressure, and the broader chip complex struggled, even as some large-cap tech held up. Palantir stood out, hitting new highs on analyst upgrades and continued AI enthusiasm.
The big headline mover was SpaceX’s agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. That news hammered traditional telecoms—T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon all dropped sharply—as investors priced in a potential new mobile competitor. Tower stocks rallied on the idea that densification and additional site demand could follow. Oil stayed elevated and choppy around the mid-100s on Brent amid shifting Iran headlines, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled near 5.24 percent after earlier swings. Consumer sentiment remained soft, particularly for lower-income households, but it didn’t derail the broader tape.
The AI-driven bull market is approaching its four-year mark, and large-cap tech continues to carry a lot of the weight. Earnings expectations for the third quarter are robust, with aggregate S&P 500 growth projected in the 30 percent range. Banks are expected to benefit from higher rates, trading activity, and capital markets, while technology and energy are also forecast to show strong year-over-year comparisons.
Looking ahead, next week is loaded. Equity markets are open Monday for Columbus Day, but bond markets are closed, so volume could be lighter early. Earnings season kicks off in earnest Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and ASML follow on Wednesday. Taiwan Semiconductor is also on the calendar later in the week. These reports will give the first real look at how higher rates, consumer spending, and AI-related demand are flowing through to actual results.
The main macro event is Wednesday’s September CPI report, one of the last major inflation readings before the late-October Fed meeting. Markets will be watching whether the print supports or undercuts the case for another rate hike by year-end. Thursday brings PPI and retail sales, which should round out the inflation and consumer picture. Fed speakers and the Beige Book are also on the schedule. Geopolitics around Iran and energy prices remain a wildcard that can quickly shift sentiment.
The setup into next week is constructive near the highs, but selectivity matters. Leadership has narrowed in some areas, small caps are lagging, and yields plus oil remain elevated. Strong bank earnings and a lighter inflation print could keep the bid under the market. Any disappointment on either front would likely spark some rotation or profit-taking after the recent run. Stay focused on the earnings and the data.
See you guys in our Discord room in the morning.
Have a nice evening.