Deleverage Me

scream1 300x213 Deleverage Me

The market is more nervous than a hooker in a confessional right now. The sell off in the euro means business and the globe is in “shoot first ask questions later mode”.  It goes down as I write this.  What a crazy day today. We had a Russell 2000 re-balancing and stocks were all over the place. $AAPL gave me heart attacks about four different times today. Still my favorite stock to trade.

I’m long the euro via $FXE, I’m down a couple of bucks in the trade. If I was short the currency, I would be hurting. But I didn’t, so I’m not. Thankfully. I have enough stress with stocks.

I have been around long enough to know that two things happen when a market, stock, currency or ETF trades at these extremes. Either everyone is leaning the wrong way, or they are correct in their thinking. If the market is truly correct, then we are all screwed. If the crowd is right, then the euro and Europe will implode and we will probably see a 100-200 point crushing of the S&P. Fast.

I’m not saying we bottomed or going higher tomorrow. What probably needs to happen is a test of the $SPX  200 day moving average. It would amaze me if it didn’t happen. That number is roughly 1284. Looks like a magnet right now.

I had the S&P and euro chart next to each other all day. Amazing how they trade together. Kind of like $AAPL and the $QQQ’s. It’s all Europe right now.

If we break the 1280 level on the $SPX with conviction (meaning a panic sell off in Europe), my plan is to release the hounds of hell to the short side. I’ve done it before and i will do it again. Frankly I haven’t been short this tape. The trade doesn’t work, it hasn’t worked. It has lately though, as we are down big. Can’t get em all. Was mostly cash on the way down though. I saw stops.

Sell in May and go away has been spot on. The $RUT lost about 9%, Asia -10% Spain/Italy-6%, Crude -16%, Copper -11% gold -5.7%  Nazz -8% DOW -7.2%. Those are ballparks but pretty close. The Russell 2000 had its second worst month in history for May.

Japan is in a Depression (I don’t care what anybody says), and I trust China’s numbers like I trust Jon Corzine with my kids custodial accounts.

Commodities of all types are getting wrecked. The risk off party and the big deleverage is in full throttle right now.

It’s tough looking through the fog of war. So tough to see things clearly.

On the plus side I think the feared fiscal cliff will be avoided, these ham sandwiches in Congress will figure it out. Europe is close to floating into the Mediterranean, so I think something will get done sooner than later on that front.  Our growth is anemic, but we hang in there. I still think this happens.

I could just as easily make a case for a crash. All the stars are aligned. But as I channel my best contrarian, I feel we rally soon. Tons o’ cash.

However, I will become a grizzly bear on a break of 1280.

Down about 1.5% for May. I suck. Should have killed the short side. Yet I feel victorious.

Shorted $TLT today, still long $AAPL, $FXE, bought $JOY off the bottom, saw some stops. That’s life.

Jobs tomorrow.

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Apple Is An iBuy

aapl13 Apple Is An iBuy
APPLE

I have probably traded $AAPL more in the last week or so than I ever have in the past. This tape has been a nightmare lately and to me, $AAPL has been offering up major trading opportunities on a daily basis. I am a trader not necessarily an investor, but these ten and twenty point intraday moves in AAPL have been great.

Yesterday $AAPL accomplished a few technical things that were bullish.

1- It broke above the white downtrend line yesterday on improving volume.

2- It also broke above lateral resistance (green line)

3- MACD is turning up.

My next short term targets are 590 then 600. On May 17 I told my subscribers to get long at 536, we trimmed a quarter position on Tuesday for +36 points and we are carrying the remaining balance. I always sell a little on strength, it keeps me honest.

I believe the tape will turn higher soon and I believe the performance chasing troglodytes will want to be long $AAPL again. There is stll a lot of economic data on the docket today and tomorrow. Good luck out there.

The presses will be printing soon.

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Here’s What Will Happen

relax 300x300 Heres What Will Happen

First of all, these fucktards in Europe need to get a grip. Neo- nazis, New Socialists, New Democracy, bite me. The Sriza party sounds like bad fucking red wine.

The walls of Greece are covered in graffiti that reads “For nothing-against everything”. Know what? Go drink Drano. Your act is tiresome. You miserable entitled bunch of bastards. May you all circle the drain together.Send Sean Penn and Wycliffe over there to raise capital.

The Communists in China will save Greece somehow someway. Their near term existence kind of depends on it as they sell their asbestos and broken toys to Europe. It’s their largest export partner. Don’t forget, China needs more vacant condos and malls.  Build it and they will come.  At least they think so.

Germany is the best room in the crack den right now and Merkel will acquiesce to save her own bacon at some point. It sucks being successful when you’re surrounded by the “give me” crowd.  Lagarde snapped at Greece the other day, but later bought back some of her sizzle, (basically told Greece to go die,) after her Facebook page lit up by angry cradle to gravers.

Truth is, she was upset because Sarkozy, now a devil may care playboy, was getting new lifts and blew off their date. TMZ is reporting that it’s all good now.

Money is being wired out of southern Europe to northern Europe for safety reasons and there is a very orderly jog on the banks banks right now.

Everyone plays tough until they are on bended knee before the guillotine. It is then that people talk, beg or show their cards. As pathetic as it may be, Europe, as well as these United States, have howitzers, bazookas and daisy cutters at their disposal. As a result, they will not let this pathetic house of cards collapse.

There is just way to much collective skin in the game.

Have your seats and tray tables in an upright position. It should be a hoot.

$eurousd $uup $spx $qqq

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Euro Pop…Sort Of

euro 3 Euro Pop...Sort Of
Eurodollar from 5PM last night

The euro ripped higher last night on news that New Democracy party was taking a lead in the polls. The speculation is that they may actually win in the June elections. It’s too early, but the euro and Greek stocks liked it.

Earlier, Athens Stocks were up 7.15%, Banks surged 7.14% – Alpha 11.45%, NBG 7.44%, Piraeus 8.53%, Eurobank 8.96%

The euro however, is currently trying to fill the opening gap up from the open last night at 5PM.

Four polls published Sunday reversed previous trends to indicate that conservative New Democracy could come first in the June 17 vote, slightly ahead of the anti-austerity radical left Syriza party. Although the conservatives would still fall short of a governing majority, the surveys suggested they could form a coalition government with socialist PASOK, which have also pledged to stick to Greece’s austerity commitments.

Planet earth and various solar systems are short the euro. It will be interesting to see how any perceived good news going forward will squeeze the euro short trade. Again, it’s still early in the game and a thin tape.

Long $FXE

$EURUSD $UUP $SPX

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Next Week Will Be Off the Chart Huge

wtf1 300x209 Next Week Will Be Off the Chart Huge

Guesstimates on a Greek exit from the Eurozone range anywhere from next week to the end of the year. Oh fun. The market hates uncertainty and we are neck deep right now. We could have a sell off of biblical proportions next week, stay flat or maybe rip higher. As a result, we are all on pins and needles unless you are all cash. No one wants to be caught leaning the wrong way, long or short.

Last week we saw a decent pop in consumer confidence, an increase in new and exiting home sales and an unexpected rise in durable goods orders. With all the fear and bad headlines, the $SPX still managed to hold 1300 and close at 1317.

Technology and biotech will be in focus this week as the ASCO conference kicks off later in the week. There are some names that could play nicely into that event. They always do. Watch $ARIA

The technology sector will also be in the spotlight, as some of the market’s biggest names will be gathering at the D10 All Things Digital conference that begins Tuesday. $AAPL will be there and Tim Cook will present Separately, retailers and the auto industry are scheduled to report their latest sale.

Tuesday- Consumer confidence reading

Wednesday- Fed heads speak.

Thursday- GDP revisions and same store sales for May

Friday- May car sales and the Big  Kahuna, non farm payrolls will be released.

Some stocks are oversold and some still need to get drilled into submission. It’s amazing that some coal stocks are trading below 2008 crash levels.

They never ring a bell at bottoms or tops, so pay attention.

 

 

 

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A Jog On the Banks

greece7 300x207 A Jog On the Banks

Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs spoke at a hedge fund conference in London back in January when the euro was trading about where it is now. The euro hadn’t broken the 1.26 figure back then, but it was perilously close. He asked for a show of hands regarding the future direction of the currency. About 95% thought the euro was going to zero. Shortly thereafter the euro had a rip of epic proportions. The trade was as crowed as ten Keynsians in a phone booth.

Well, we are back to those levels now. The difference this time is that the euro broke the 1.26 figure yesterday. We are hearing about banks runs (more like bank jogs at this point) but there is evidence that money is being moved out. Will Greece leave the euro? Who knows.

All I know is that when news flow gets so negative and painfully redundant (this is crack for the financial media), it’s usually time for a bounce and that’s what we saw yesterday. The reversal was vicious and crippled some shorts. I also know that when you get paralyzed by headlines and refuse to trade those headlines, you are not doing yourself any favors. Yes the world is a mess, Japan is in a Depression and sells more adult diapers than children’s diapers. They haven’t heard a baby cry in years. There adult population will be halved in twenty years.

It’s important that the tape can at the very least hold yesterday’s move to some degree though. China PMI was released last night, the number was weak but futures are still higher and global markets look much better right here. More stimulus coming there I think. If Europe says something good (even by mistake), you will have seen a short term bottom in the euro. This should result in an epic short squeeze which will result in a strong sell off in the dollar and a face ripping rally in U.S. stocks.

My subscribers are up over 30 points in $AAPL in very short order here. We took longs in $QLD, $SSO & $TNA on Friday and have profits of 5-10% in those names.

Screw Europe, but be nimble. Tight stops.

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