5% On The 10-Year And Nvidia’s Bad Week Gets Worse
Monday’s relief rally lasted exactly one session. Hotter-than-expected October CPI spoiled the mood Tuesday morning, and the indexes spent the day giving back part of yesterday’s big bounce. The S&P 500 slipped 0.38% to 7,521, the Dow dropped 0.30% to 52,232, the Nasdaq fell 0.74% to 25,066, and the Russell 2000 gave up 0.68% to 2,821. Even after today, the S&P is still up about 2% for the week. That’s what happens when Monday is your best day since spring.
The CPI numbers left little room for interpretation. Headline prices rose 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%. That’s the third straight month of 0.3% core prints. Fed Governor Waller then said he’d back at least a quarter-point hike in December and floated a half-point move if core keeps running this hot. Markets now put a December hike at roughly 86%, with about a 14% chance it’s 50 basis points. The 10-year jumped about 13 basis points to 5.00%. That number matters for every growth multiple on your screen, so watch it.
NVDA had another rough day and fell more than 5%, on top of Monday’s 4% drop, which puts it near 52-week lows. A shareholder lawsuit filed in California says Nvidia and Jensen Huang misled investors by not disclosing Huang’s alleged relationship with a former Megaspeed executive. The suit frames that as a national security issue. The President said the FBI is looking into it, and the House China committee chair wants answers. For now it’s headline risk, not a fundamentals story, but when the AI bellwether trades on legal headlines, the whole supply chain feels it.
Elsewhere, GEV fell about 7% after SoftBank disclosed a $3.7 billion charge and contract changes tied to U.S. AI data center power projects. SKYD lost nearly 8% on weak earnings, a soft outlook, and debt worries. $FSLR gave back about 6%. GFL dropped around 9% after its board turned down a $22 billion take-private offer.
There were some winners. AAON jumped roughly 26% after beating estimates and raising full-year guidance. SANM rallied about 11% on strong fiscal Q4 results. TTWO gained over 6% after management said GTA VI pre-orders are tracking well above expectations, enough to offset a 15% revenue decline. Oil eased too, with WTI down about 1.5% to around $85.50 after the President said he’d hold off on new strikes against Iran.
After the bell, CRWV beat on revenue at $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year, and raised full-year guidance to $13 billion to $13.3 billion. Backlog reached $132.5 billion. The stock spiked as much as 8% after hours, then cooled to flat. The reason is the other line in the report: quarterly interest expense of $846 million topped GAAP operating income. Demand isn’t the question for this name. Financing is. Anthropic also launched its IPO roadshow today with a $70 to $78 range, so AI supply is about to get a lot bigger.
Looking ahead, the 10-year at 5% is the line in the sand. If yields keep pushing higher, it gets harder to argue that Monday’s breadth repair can last, and tech will keep trading like the funding source. If yields stall here, today looks like a normal giveback after a 2% ramp. Watch how NVDA trades on any follow-up headlines and whether the AI infrastructure names can hold together after CRWV’s mixed reaction.
Gold and silver were down on hot rates and a rising dollar. Bitcoin was down.
Have a great night; see you in the Discord in the morning.