Market Wrap — Wednesday, September 30, 2026- Micron (MU) Reported, Here’s the Deal
Stocks faded a cooler inflation print and closed mixed to lower. Morning PCE was better than feared, then the tape rolled over after data showed the economy was even stronger in the spring than first reported. Yields stayed high. That combination is still the ceiling.
The Close
S&P 500: 7,651.54, −0.3%
Dow: 50,906.05, −0.9%
Nasdaq: 26,861.06, +0.2%
Russell 2000: 2,796.86, −0.4%
September was a grind. Bloomberg called it the S&P’s worst month since June. Long bonds remain the problem: 30-year yields have been at levels last seen in 2002. Oil is still near $100. Rate-cut hopes for October are thin.
After the close: Micron
Q4 (ended Sept. 3)
Revenue: $54.23B vs ~$51.1B Street and $50B ± $1B company guide
Adj. EPS: $33.42 vs ~$31.6–$31.8
Gross margin: ~87%
Operating cash flow: $44.0B
Full-year FY26 revenue: $133.2B vs $37.4B last year
Q1 FY27 guide
Revenue: $61.5B ± $1.5B vs ~$57B Street
Adj. EPS: $38.15 ± $1 vs ~$35.4
GM still ~86%
That $61.5B guide is the story. Q4 was a 14-week quarter at $54B. Q1 is 13 weeks guided to $61.5B. Weekly run-rate went up, not down. Mehrotra: record FY26, “even stronger” FY27.
Tape: stock popped about +$15 on the release, then gave it back on the call and was roughly −$6 from the close as of this writing. Same pattern as June: numbers too good; market immediately argues for a peak multiple/peak cycle. Fair debate at ~7x next year’s earnings. Unfair if tightness and SCAs hold through 2027.
Memory complex (SNDK, WDC, STX, DRAM ETF) should follow the print overnight. Equipment (LRCX, AMAT) is the capex read-through if they lean into more spending on the call.
Bottom line: regular session was rates and “too-strong economy.” After hours, MU was proving the memory shortage is still paying like software. The stock not holding the pop is positioning, not a miss. Watch whether AH sellers fade into the open or get run over if Korea/Hynix (SKHY) follow through Thursday.
QQQ is currently holding at +0.25% in after-market trading but well off the day’s highs. I guess you could say MU was a non-event, even though the print was amazing. Is the Nazzy telling us it needs a little rest? Maybe. I think rates really need to come down soon to sustain any tech rally and get the Russell 2000 off its ass. Higher rates are an enemy of tech, but even more damaging to the small caps in the Russell.
Of course I own a lot of tech, so hoping for the best. 10-year Treasury closed at 5.29%, and the 30-year at 5.63% today. 75% of S&P 500 stocks were down this month. The mighty few are holding this whole shebang up. Getting a little sketchy out there, to say the least.