Oil Slides, Chips Rip: Markets Bet on Calmer Iran Headlines
Markets spent Tuesday doing their best impression of a coin flip that landed on its edge. The S&P 500 finished essentially unchanged at 7,764.64, but don’t let the flat headline number fool you — there was real rotation happening underneath. The Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.45% to close at 27,244.28, notching its second straight record close, NDX +0.8%, while the Dow lagged with a 0.36% drop to 51,863.69. Small caps quietly had a solid day too, with the Russell 2000 up 0.51%.
The story of the day was chips, again. Semiconductor names extended their win streak to six straight sessions, with Micron and Nvidia leading the charge as the AI trade continues to do the heavy lifting for the broader tape. That strength was enough to offset a selloff in bank shares, which is really the whole market in one sentence right now: AI momentum carrying the index, financials dragging it back.
Oil gave everyone a reason to breathe easier. Crude dropped another 2.7% to settle near $90, extending its slide as hopes build for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Iran situation — Trump characterized a meeting with Iranian envoys in New York as “very good,” which is doing a lot of work for a market that’s been pricing in geopolitical risk for weeks. The VIX agreed, dropping over 4% to 14.21 — that’s about as calm as fear gauges get.
Gold ticked up modestly to $4,396.70, bitcoin slipped under $86,300, and bonds mostly stabilized after a choppy week of yield swings.
Tomorrow’s setup: the chip momentum is the thing to watch — six days is a long streak, and streaks like this either extend into a real breakout or set up for profit-taking, no in-between. Keep an eye on whether Iran headlines continue to improve, because that’s the tailwind behind both the oil slide and the calmer VIX. And don’t sleep on financials — if that sector selloff continues while tech keeps ripping, the divergence eventually forces a resolution one way or the other.
Have a great night; see you in the Discord in the morning.