Weekend Market Report: Week Ending August 14, 2026

The market delivered another constructive week, extending the recent grind higher even as it pulled back modestly from fresh records on Friday. Soft economic data reduced near-term rate-hike fears, strong earnings continued to provide fundamental support, and selective leadership within technology and energy kept the broader tape resilient.

The S&P 500 is now up roughly 4% over the past three weeks—the strongest such stretch since early May—and remains within striking distance of its record close.

Core Theme: Soft Data, Sticky Earnings, and a Patient Fed

The dominant narrative was the shift in rate expectations. July retail sales came in weaker than expected (–0.6%), and producer prices were softer than forecast. Markets quickly priced in a lower probability of a September rate hike (now around 25–30%, down from near 50% earlier in the week).

This “higher-for-longer but not tighter” backdrop has been supportive. At the same time, the earnings season remains one of the strongest in recent years. Blended S&P 500 second-quarter earnings growth is running well above initial expectations, with the majority of companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates. AI-related capital spending remains the primary growth engine.

Geopolitical noise (Middle East tensions and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz) pushed oil prices higher and provided a bid for the energy sector, preventing the market from becoming a pure soft-landing celebration.

What Moved

Standouts on the upside:

Reddit (RDDT) surged ~13% after confirmation it will join the S&P 500 (effective August 18). Index inclusion flows remain a powerful short-term catalyst.

Energy names and oil-related stocks benefited from higher crude prices.

AMD and several memory/storage names (SanDisk, Seagate, etc.) extended recent strength, showing that AI hardware leadership is broadening beyond the usual mega-cap suspects.

Notable pressure:

Applied Materials (AMAT) dropped ~5% despite solid results and an upbeat outlook—classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” after a massive year-to-date run.

NBIS had a massive move after reporting earnings.

Broadcom (AVGO) fell ~6% as analysts scrutinized potential large-scale financing needs tied to AI infrastructure.

Some hyperscalers (Meta, Amazon, Oracle) finished mixed to lower, reflecting selective profit-taking after strong runs.
Overall market breadth improved, with the equal-weight S&P and small-caps participating more meaningfully than in some prior weeks.

Takeaway & Positioning Notes

This was a classic “good news is good, soft data is also good” week. The combination of still-robust earnings and reduced near-term Fed risk continues to support the melt-up environment, particularly for high-quality growth and AI-related names. However, the selective selling in certain semiconductor and mega-cap names shows that valuations are being scrutinized more carefully.

Key levels & watch items for next week:

S&P 500: Watch the recent record zone (~7,800) as both resistance and potential support on any dip.
Retail earnings (Home Depot, Walmart) will test the consumer narrative after the soft retail sales print.

Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main exogenous risk.

Any shift in Fed speak or incoming data that re-prices the path of rates.

The environment still favors staying constructive on the major indices while being selective on individual names that have already run hard. Breadth improvement is a positive signal that the advance is becoming healthier.

Key Events This Week: 1. July Housing Starts data – Tuesday 2. July Pending Home Sales data – Tuesday 3. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday 4. August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday 5. August S&P Global Services PMI data – Friday, 6. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data – Friday, the S&P 500 is now up +13.5% year-to-date.

On Friday, Trump pressured Apple and other US companies to stop buying memory chips from China. This could benefit MU, DRAM, RAM, and others in this space as the week goes on.

NVDA reports in 10 days.

Some new setups I am watching that look promising include: SPCX (starting bullish flag), VRT, CRDO, NVTS (watch 14.80), NOK (bull flag). More as the week progresses.

Catch you guys on Discord in the morning.