Best Week Since April: S&P Hits Record as Soft Jobs Data Fuels Rally-Also, Looking at Crypto

Best Gains Since April as Soft Jobs Data and Earnings Fuel Rally

U.S. stocks delivered their strongest weekly performance since April, with the major indexes posting solid gains, fresh records for the S&P 500 and Dow, and a sharp rebound in technology and semiconductor shares.

Soft July employment data on Friday cooled expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, while resilient corporate earnings—particularly in AI-related and software names—provided the fuel for the advance.

Here’s how the major benchmarks closed the week:

S&P 500: Closed at a record 7,757.64 (+0.62% on Friday, +3.58% for the week)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 54,036.93 (+0.28% Friday, +2.96% week)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,690.62 (+1.30% Friday, +5.19% week)
Russell 2000: Approximately 3,034 (+1.1% Friday, +3.5% week)

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up roughly 13.3%, the Dow about 12.4%, the Nasdaq roughly 14.8%, and the Russell 2000 around 22%.

Breadth was constructive, with eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors finishing higher on Friday. The semiconductor space stood out, with the SOXX ETF gaining more than 7% on the week

What Drove the Move:

The standout catalyst arrived Friday morning with the July employment report. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 jobs (versus expectations of an increase near 80,000), and prior months were revised lower. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%.

Markets interpreted the softer labor data as reducing the urgency for a rate hike at the September Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward the 4.64–4.65% area, supporting risk assets. Earlier in the week, strong earnings results helped rebuild confidence after some July pressure around elevated AI capital spending. Technology and growth stocks led the rebound, reversing recent underperformance.

Notable Stock Movers:

Several names posted eye-catching moves:

Atlassian (TEAM) surged approximately 35% on Friday—its largest one-day percentage gain on record—after delivering a strong revenue outlook.

Airbnb (ABNB) jumped about 17%, emerging as one of the top S&P 500 performers following a second-quarter revenue beat.

Microchip Technology (MCHP) advanced roughly 14%.

SpaceX (SPCX) rose about 15.8% on Friday (and roughly 23% for the full week) after the expiration of the first post-IPO share lockup period, closing near $133.

On the downside, Trade Desk (TTD) dropped around 22% after issuing weaker-than-expected third-quarter revenue guidance.
Broader Markets Snapshot:

Gold enjoyed one of its strongest weeks of the year (best since January in some measures), climbing roughly 5–8% and trading toward or above the $4,300 level. Bitcoin posted more modest gains of about 2–4%, holding near the $65,000 area. Oil prices were mixed amid ongoing developments in the Middle East.

Looking Ahead:

The combination of softer labor data, solid earnings delivery, and a technology rebound left the major indexes at or near all-time highs heading into the new week. Markets will continue to parse incoming inflation data, remaining earnings reports, and any further signals on the Fed’s path under Chair Warsh. Stay tuned for more updates. As always, this is not investment advice—do your own research and manage risk carefully.

Bitcoin and Ethereum-Watching……………….

So I haven’t really looked at these two in a year, but I have them on my radar. Here’s why. Nothing actionable for me yet, but watching.

IBIT and ETHA are both trading well off their 2025 highs after a significant correction, which sets up a fresh long-side look. As of early August 2026, Bitcoin is around $64,000–$65,000 (roughly 50% below the October 2025 peak near $126,000).

IBIT trades near $36.50–$36.80 (YTD roughly -26%, 1-year ~-45%).

Ethereum is around $1,900–$1,920.

ETHA trades near $14.40–$14.50 (YTD roughly -35% to -37%, 1-year ~-50%+).

Key bullish catalysts right now. ETF flows have flipped positive again

After months of pressure and net outflows earlier in 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen a clear restart of institutional buying in early August. BlackRock’s IBIT has led with multi-hundred-million-dollar inflow days (hundreds of millions across recent sessions). ETHA has also posted solid positive days (often $50M–$80M+). This is the cleanest signal of returning demand from the same regulated channels that drove the prior cycle.

Macro tailwind from weaker labor data

The July 2026 jobs report came in soft (actual losses or far below expectations). That has shifted market pricing toward fewer (or delayed) Fed hikes and raised hopes for eventual easing. Crypto has historically responded strongly to any credible path toward lower rates or easier liquidity.

Regulatory catalyst still live

The CLARITY Act (market-structure bill clarifying SEC/CFTC roles) remains a live item. Progress or passage would reduce the regulatory risk discount that has weighed on both assets and could unlock additional institutional and banking participation.

On-chain accumulation by “smart money”

Long-term holders and large wallets (whales) have continued adding Bitcoin and Ethereum during the drawdown. Ethereum staking remains elevated (locking up a significant portion of supply), and exchange balances have trended lower. This is classic late-stage correction behavior.

Technical and cycle context

Both assets are consolidating after deep corrections. Bitcoin has key levels around $67k–$69k that, if reclaimed with volume and sustained ETF demand, open higher targets. Ethereum has shown double-bottom-type structures and is testing/holding key moving averages with potential measured moves toward $2,100+. Historically, these kinds of multi-month drawdowns from cycle peaks have produced asymmetric long opportunities once institutional flows return.

Structural differences that still favor the long side of Bitcoin / IBIT: Fixed supply, maturing “digital gold” + institutional infrastructure (custody, ETFs, corporate treasuries).

Ethereum / ETHA: Ongoing protocol upgrades (scalability, UX, and further hardening in 2026), high staking participation, and residual growth in DeFi/RWA activity.

Bottom line:

The possible impetus to look again on the long side is the combination of depressed prices, renewed institutional ETF demand, a more constructive macro/regulatory setup, and continued holder accumulation. That package has historically marked better risk/reward entry zones than chasing the prior highs. This is not a guarantee of an immediate rally—crypto remains volatile, and macro/geopolitical risks (rates, oil, politics) can still intervene. Position sizing, time horizon, and your own risk tolerance matter. But the current setup is more conducive to a fresh long-side evaluation than it was 6–12 months ago, when prices were higher and flows were weaker.

Also, silver and gold are catching my eye again too after the big pullback. All these potential plays are evolving, and I promise to keep you posted.

See you in the Discord room in the morning.