Market Recap

Dow: -129.44…
Nasdaq: +194.39… S&P: +6.06…

A 90-point rally off the intraday lows. Bear market bounce, or can this get legs? Back over that now famous 3800 level which is good for bulls.

The stock market had growth concerns on its mind when it started today’s session. When it ended today’s session, it was wrapped up more in a feeling of inflation relief. Still, it was impossible to put a bow on that package, because the inflation relief was borne out of an expectation that global economic growth is going to weaken appreciably.

Nevertheless, things looked a lot better at the close than they did shortly after the open. At their lows of the morning, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 2.4%, 1.9%, and 2.2%, respectively. The Nasdaq would ultimately close up 1.8%, bolstered by strength in the mega-cap components. The S&P 500, meanwhile, eked out a 0.2% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled with a modest 0.4% decline.

Today was beautiful as all the pundits and economists came out of the woodwork.

Remember when inflation was transitory, then it was permanent and out of control? Now they are saying we saw peak inflation a month ago and now we have to worry about DEFLATION, not so much inflation.

Deflation means falling prices that leads to lower consumer spending, which is a major component of economic growth.

Pick your poison. Inflation, stagflation, deflation, recession, or all of the above.

I need another week in Key West.

This has become more confusing than Fathers Day in Appalachia and frankly, it’s hard to trade.

We come from a  new commodity supercycle, to get the hell out of commodities because the recession is coming.

I rarely take a day off, but I do need a deep breath from this shit.

Some of last night’s stocks triggered. EDU, ALKS, and CELH all popped.

I sold CELH and EDU. I will update P&L pre-open.

Today could have been just another case of a rally in a bear market, with some commodity money finding its way back to tech/growth for the very short term or some more tech/growth upside.

We are short-term oversold again, but in the context of a recession, we are still way overvalued.

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