50-50

50% chance that this is a bull market and 50% chance that this is a bear market rally….

Assuming the S&P 500 closes above 2684.88 today, we will be in a new bull market, and each of the last three bull markets (starting 11/20/08, 3/9/09, and current) will have entered bull market territory within 12 or fewer trading days of the bear market low.

So 50% that this is November 08 (sell sell sell) and 50% that this is march 09 (buy buy buy). Small sample, but pretty sure that it’s a 50-50 bet from here…..

Roll them bones.