Doing What Works


I’m sitting here in drifts of about two feet, big winds, and the real dump doesn’t even happen until later.  The satellite is down and its a matter of time before I lose internet.  Why I’m not snook fishing in the Florida mangroves is beyond me, I am a stupid person.

There is overbought, there is oversold, there is fear, there is greed. These are my four trading rules that I live by. Shove your PEG ratios, your SKEW, your forward earnings, your trailing earnings and your multiple friggin’ expansions. Its all noise, all of it. First of all, there isn’t an analyst who can get an earnings call right anyway, so why even bother.

I dont try and pick bottoms or tops, but I do use technicals to tell me when things are puking (need to be bought) and euphoric (when every chart looks like a Picasso you should short or move to cash).

The market was flat to down last year right? This year should be  root canal on many levels (my opinion). That doesn’t mean you can’t make gobs of money trading the “levels”. Buy and hold can be hazardous at these levels.

Last week we caught a lift, we overshot the SPX October lows by about 8 handles and ripped.  They always seem to overthrow the level by a little bit. Some sell stops kick in, then they rip it in your face.  This is normal market and technical behavior.


I can see an SPX push to 1950, maybe even 2000 if this does another V verticle, but trends to me seem broken, and I’m more inclined to short rips this year.  Thinking macro, but trading micro.  It works.

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