The Wrap 6/1/10


It was a very tight range for most of the day until we failed late in the day.

Following the U.S. markets’ worst May since 1940, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is trying to rally to start June.

The upturn follows a failed test of the S&P’s 200-day moving average last week, and all trends technically point lower until this area is reclaimed.

Advance-declines were 4 to 1 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and about 5 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 13 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of a little over 1.4 billion. Nasdaq traded just under 2.1 billion and had a better than 5 to 1 negative ratio.

The financials (XLF) rolled over again and the oil service sector (OIH) continues to get decimated as the Deepwater Horizon disaster has taken $100 billion out of market capitalizations of the five key companies connected to the spill over the past six weeks. BP is clearly a disaster on all fronts and RIG is imploding.

Things look bleak on that front, we also have Korea, the Mid East and Europe to worry about. The wall of worry is getting slipprier by the day for the bills to climb and the bears are starting to feel empowered. Weak closes are never bullish, as it magnifies the reluctance of the bulls to step up and make a bid.

Today was an odd start to the month for us, as we had winners in SHLD and MCO from the short side, but a brief trigger and stop on DECK from the long side. I hate long triggers on sluggish to down days, they rarely follow through, please keep that in mind in the future. I suggested much smaller positions today from the short and long side, as the market is currently bipolar and at times and doesn’t seem to know whether to fish or cut bait.

We could catch a technical bounce as soon as tomorrow, that’s always a possibility, as the market is confused, any perceived piece of good news from anywhere could act as a short term catalyst. We still need to protect gains and adjust stops accordingly. The Macro picture is in shambles as the Euro remains a currency without a country and our greenback is the safe haven…go figure. We’re still the only game in town when global uncertainty comes to town.

Unemployment is a disaster and we are giving the term “jobless recovery” new definition. We’re finding out now that consumer spending may have been grossly overstated and here is an interesting piece on unemployment.

Yes, you do get more than just numb-nut chart reading here. It all counts, and the politics of things has never mattered more in my 25 years of trading. I feel that the sins of our current and past administrations is catching up to us. Armageddon? Maybe, maybe not. We cannot thrive with zero job growth and our bloated debt. We can rally, we just can’t thrive.

How does Geihtner fly across the pond and pontificate fiscal discipline as we piss away money like a meth head at a keg party? Pain is coming here, it might not be tomorrow , but it’s coming.

On a lighter note, we’ll make money either way.

I’m waiting for some patterns to develop better, it may take a day or two, so no new names tonight. I will alert you intraday tomorrow if anything breaks.

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