The Week Ahead 11/9/09

{+++}1030 to 1070 was the range last week and very well could be the range this week. Last week was loaded with events, the Fed, Buffet, unemployment figures, gold hit all time highs and a couple of interesting reversals. Stocks are going up on light volume and down on bigger volume, high/ lows are nothing to write home about, yet the market stair steps higher. Are we close to a vicious fall or will be eclipse the 1100 level with volume this time?

There are two distinct camps right now, the bulls are looking for a huge rally into year end based on vast liquidity on the sidelines (is there really?, mutual funds are pretty spent here), and the bears, well, the bears always think the bulls have had too much fun and should go home early. The bears in my humble opinion have a far better argument and I believe they have far ammo than the bulls do. You know all my reasons by now, but just to name a few; we have 10.2% unemployment, a crashing greenback, tax cuts expiring, tax increases coming, national debt at incomprehensible levels and getting worse, banks not lending, small businesses (biggest job creators) choking, a completely inept government, self serving politicians that are clueless, I could go on forever. The market however continues to climb the wall of worry. And that is what worries me. At some point the party ends and reality does set in.

Here are some names for the next couple of days and the week ahead. I will be on Twitter if we need to change entries or exits, I will also post to the site if I do. Lets have a good week.

Date Symbol Long Price Short Price Stop Action Result P/(L) Triggered
9-24-09
MCO 23.00 22.00 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Stopped 1/3

+2.00

+4.30

+1.00

yes
MHP 26.19 26 Covered ½,stopped on balance flat +2.00 yes
NAV 40.31 39 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

+1.30

+3.00

+2.03

yes
QSFT 16.30 16 Sold ½, sold balance(10-13-9) +.80

+1.70

yes
SIGA 8.43 7.65 Stopped -.80 yes
MELA 10.50 9.50 Stopped -1.00 yes
9-28-09 COCO 17.29 18.25 Sold ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.00

-.90

yes
ZION 17.39 19.00 Stopped ½ flat yes
9-30-09 YGE 11.90 12.60 -.70 yes
VNO 63.00 65.50 flat yes
XCO 19.05 18.00 stopped -1.05 yes
MHGC 5.60 5.20 -.40 yes
10-1-09 CALI 6.35 5.50 stopped -.85 no
CENX 8.97 9.60 stopped +.50 yes
BAC 16.02 16.80 stopped -.78 yes
AAP 37.70 39.40 stopped -1.70 yes
10-05-09 EXC 47.78 50 stopped -2..22 yes
JEF 27.60 27.90 Sold 100% (10-13-9) +1.60 yes
TSPT 14.35 13.70 stopped -.65 yes
HIG 29.05 28.30 stopped -.75 yes
APT 6.25 6.00 stopped -.25 yes
10-7-9 FCX 73.43 73.00 Sold half(10-13-9)

Sold balance10-14-9

+1.78

+3.10

yes
10-10-9 PENN 25.67 26.20 stopped -.53 yes
NITE 23.00 22.40 stopped -.60 yes
O 22.85 24.00 yes
STEC 25.51 25.80 Covered 1/3

Covered 2/3

+1.00

+3.50

yes
ARST 23.59 24.00 Sold 1/3

Sold 1/3

+1.20

+2.20

yes
FIRE 23.43 22.50 stopped -1.90 yes
10-14-9 HRBN 19.72 19.30 stopped -.50 yes
UCTT 6.95 6.30 stopped -.65 yes
10-15-09 MS 33.35 33.00 Sold all +2.00
10-16-9 QSII 65.76 64.00 stopped -1.76 yes
ACI 24.22 23.20 stopped -1.02 yes
10-19-9 MEE 33.64 34.50 stopped -1.20 yes
BTU 42.35 42.50 sold +.20 yes
FSLR 146.80 152 stopped -5.00 yes
ABAX 23.86 25.00 Covered ½

Covered 1/2

+1.00

+1.00

yes
PPD 40.12 41.50 yes
MCO 23.14 25.50 no
10-22-9 MCRS 27.40 28.00 Covered 1/3 +1.30 yes
AMAG 35.10 35.90 yes
TNDM 22.92 23.40 Covered ½

Covered ¼

Stopped 1/4

+1.90

+2.30

-.48

yes
BAC 16.05 16.60 Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

Covered 1/3

+.80

+1.00

+1.50

yes
VMI 75.70 76.70 Covered ½

Covered ¼

Covered balance

+3.00

+3.00

+4.00

yes
CMG 81.13 83.00 Stopped -1.87 yes
ROVI 28,09 29.00 yes
CCL 30.60 31.60 Covered 1/3 +1.30 yes
10-30-9 RTH 90.00 92.00 yes
ROST 43.76 44.83 Stopped -1.10 yes
NIHD 27.25 28.25 Covered ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.90

-1.00

yes
FWLT 28.12 29.00 Stopped -.88 yes
11-2-09 CYOU 29.00 29.80 Stopped .-80 yes
YGE 11.17 11.70 Stopped -50 yes
JLL 46.38 47.20 Sold ½

Stopped 1/2

+1.30

-82

yes
XHB 13.70 14.30 Stopped -.60 yes
WFC 27.40 28.20 yes
11-5-09 FUQI 19.14 21.00 no
CMG 81.50 84.00 no
EXPE 23.60 24.50 yes
11-9-09 BBT 23.83 25.80 no
FCX 80.25 78.00 no
AIG 32.66 34.50 no
KRE 19.45 20.50 no
MEE 33.68 32.00 no
XLF 13.62 14.50 no
BBT-SHORT
BBT-SHORT
FCX-LONG
FCX-LONG
AIG-SHORT
AIG-SHORT
KRE-SHORT
KRE-SHORT
MEE-LONG
MEE-LONG
XLF-SHORT
XLF-SHORT
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