Some Saturday Set Ups

If you are like me, you were jonesing for some market action on Friday. Next week starts the second quarter and the “correction mongers” will spread their wings starting Monday. As I said on the blog yesterday, we are overdue for a pullback, but set ups are set ups and there are some good ones.

Chasing breakouts probably isn’t the play here, because a pullback can lead you holding the bag, so finding some strong names thath ave pulled back or overdone to the downside is what I’m looking for this week. I don’t think Kim Jong- Un can stay off his porn sites and put down his Crown Royal long enough to bomb anyone on Monday, so I wont worry about this troglodyte for the time being.

Here are some set ups.

$MELI …. broke out around the 91 level and is now consolidating. Look for a continuation (this one is more of a potential break out play) to get this one to 100-105

meli3 Some Saturday Set Ups

$C …. The financials are probably giving us all another shot here. I like this corrective bullish wedge. It is also close to uptrend line support.

c2 Some Saturday Set Ups

BIOS …  had a high volume breakout a couple of weeks back and is currently working a constructive bull flag. A break above the flag (green line) takes this one higher.

bios Some Saturday Set Ups

$CLDX.. we originally caught this breakout around 8, it has moved higher and is now puling back in a healthy consolidation (bull flag). A move over Fridays high with volume can get this one higher.

cldx2 Some Saturday Set Ups

$CM…  This was a great performer in 2012 and has pulled back from its January highs. This one “may” have put in a bottom on Friday as the volume was decent and it put in a bullish engulfing bar. One to keep on your radar, if getting long, your stop should be just below Friday’s low.

cm Some Saturday Set Ups

I will have more setups along with a comprehensive video this weekend for my Premium Members, so come on by for a free trial.

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Crunch Time

spx128 Crunch Time

What a tape. Forget that the $SPX has gone from 666 to Friday’s close of 1569, but the S&P has also popped over 200 handles in just the last four months.

The market has shrugged off all challenges which include the Cyprus Crisis, Sequester Jesters, Fiscal Cliffs, slow growth, threatened government shut downs, a corroding Europe and all kinds of other fun things. When these macro events are in your face everyday, but the market still goes to new highs, well, that’s what they call “a tell”.  It ain’t rocket science.

I could easily make a case for a 10-15% correction. Things do pretty much still suck, but I won’t, because the fed is still in charge. Keep in mind that some stocks and sectors are correcting. Not all stocks are ripping everyday. If the global picture was “getting better”, then you wouldn’t see stocks like $RIO, $BHP and $CLF going shit house. Everything is a rotation, and its all  about overbought and oversold. Those stocks will find  strong bid at a price.

The bears have been boiled in acid and most of our “market experts” (of the perma bear variety) should be starting UFO advisory services. You know those “generational” guessers of which I speak. One valued “expert” called the top for the S&P for the year on Jan 2. But I’m rooting for him. So generational.

Anyhoo, the market is stupid overbought (as I’m still longer than Georgia pine), and you will see and hear the chant from the “top is in” crowd next week. You will hear this in volumes. We should correct, and probably will soon, but as I have said all along the pullbacks will be shallow and buyable.

Smaller size and tighter stops is probably a good idea up here.

UPSIDETRADER SIGN UP

Get the second quarter of the year off to a great start and come by for a free trial. Although yearend earnings season feels like it just ended, the fourth quarter numbers will start with a full frenzy in just a couple of weeks.

What You Get:

. Real time trade alerts

. Performance tracked nightly with new stock entries and stops

. Real time chat room hosted by me. Day trades and swing setups are discussed here.

. Nightly swing set ups a few times a week (with charts), where we hold names for durations of a day to two months, with exact entries, and stops.

. Entries & Exits are emailed and also given on the chat room.

. Detailed market wrap sent to your inbox every night.

. Comprehensive Sunday video which discusses the week that was and where we go next. A detailed review of our P&L names, along with analysis of any new ideas.

 

YOU CAN SIGN UP RIGHT HERE

 

 

 

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What About the S&P 100?

 

oex2 300x188 What About the S&P 100?

As the S&P finds itself about 13 handles away from ts all time intraday high, the S&P 100 ($OEX) finds itself light years away from its all time high.

The S&P 100 put in its top on March 31, 2000. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) also put in its all time high on that same day. Many remember the glory days of the tech bubble and the subsequent top and its magnificent crash. It always fun when a two hundred dollar stock trades down to a buck.

The S&P 100 hit a high of 846 that day, it closed yesterday at 703.

oex chart 300x186 What About the S&P 100?

If you look at the monthly chart at the top, you you can see that in January, the S&P 100 broke out of a downtrend that was in place from 2000.

This wont make you money, but I found it interesting. We all spend a lot of time watching the S&P 500, that we don’t look at the S&P 100. You can analyze this a few different ways, but I see it as bullish.

 

 

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Quarters End: Buy ‘Em, Sell ‘Em Or Hold ‘Em ?

buy sell hold1 300x225 Quarters End: Buy Em, Sell Em Or Hold Em ?

If you came into this year all cash and just bought the $SPX, you’re up about 10%.  An excellent year, considering your return on anything else was dirt. Thing is, not many did that, so they are not up 10% over these past ninety days.  The great migration from bonds to stocks is still up for debate, but there aren’t any sellers in the house and if things edge higher, more buyers will appear as buying always begets more buying, same for the sell side.

So if you are having a good year so far what do you do? I ask this from an institutional perspective (mutual funds, pension funds, etc.), because retail still isn’t in this market.  The quarter ends on Friday, so do you book gains and go home, just stay invested because you think the tape still goes higher (choppy tape then next week), or do you go on a buying frenzy because you missed the move and need to show that you’re long? ?  I think this situation will make next week an interesting week indeed.

My bet is on the bulls because they cant seem to knock this tape down, even a small island the size of Green Bay Wisconsin couldn’t really shake things up last week. I hear the EU will be running the NCAA bracket next year and I have Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Greece in the Final Four as my early picks. Still the third inning over there, but our market doesn’t care, as the “good house in a bad neighborhood” theory has kicked in. Buying American stocks is all the rage.

I still think the euro ( $EUR?USD) is oversold and is overdue for a rally. I also think the dollar is overbought.

$AAPL put in a solid week and few good things happened in the name.

1- It took out the daily downtrend that has been in place since it was at the 700 level.

2- It closed above it’s 50 day moving average for the first time since the Age of Pericles and..

3- It managed to close above the high that it put in on Tuesday.

Volume was OK, not great in $AAPL, but since when does volume matter on anything anymore? A move to 480-500 is not out of the question based on the chart. Good luck fan boys.

The financials continue to hang around constructively and came within pennies of a successful test of its 20 day moving average.

Good luck next week.

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