The New Year

learning The New Year

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”-Winston Churchill

Amateur night is almost upon us as people form all corners of the world will try and  channel positive karma and hope for the new year. It’s just a date on the calendar, truth is we can all change ourselves for the better at any second of any minute in any hour anytime we want. We just use this date to try and memorialize it. The liquor industry loves this day as clubs, saloons and gin mills go eight deep at the bar. Teetotalers will break down their wall and do shots of tequila while wearing propeller hats. They will vomit violently at several points as their Gucci’s become ruined. They will also realize during this violent act of reverse peristalsis how little they chew their food. In some rare cases arrests and divorce filings may result. Tomorrow morning, most will wish they just stayed home and ordered Chinese food.

Many Danish leap off chairs at midnight on New Year’s, hoping to ban all bad spirits in the new year.

At midnight on New Year’s, Spaniards consume 12 grapes and try to consume all of them by the time the clock stops chiming. They will worry about solvency on Monday.

In South America, those who wear red underpants, are hoping for love in the new year. Those who wear yellow, are wishing for money.

The ancient Greeks paraded around in the streets with a baby in a basket on New Year’s Day. It’s part of the cradle to grave thingy.

Fire crackers are set off to frighten off evil spirits on New Year’s Day in China. They will create new and exciting ways to cook the books on their public companies on Monday.

The Romans began a tradition of exchanging gifts on New Year’s Eve, by giving one another branches from sacred trees, for good fortune. Berlusconi just sits around with hookers.

88 percent of all New Year’s resolutions end in failure.

As far as the market and trading goes this year, it will be more of the same for me. We are all a work in progress as traders, so to say that there the wont be tweaks and nuances would be a lie.

1- All media is shut OFF during trading. What Mike Holland and Bob Doll think I should do is meaningless. Please realize that when they come out positive on a stock it’s for a three year hold, if that’s your thing then have at it.

2-The hardest thing to do, tell myself every morning that what I think couldn’t be more meaningless. I may think the market will get crushed for a multitude of reasons, but if the tape is higher, I will just be long. Same goes for the short side.

3-I think my longest hold in 2011 was one month. I may extend that time frame on certain names. Almost perfect entries will be of utmost importance.

4-Based on that, more hedging will need to happen.

5- I will have more exposure to global markets both long and short, there will be a lot of action there.

6-No trend no trade. If it ain’t happening I’ll watch and wait. I don’t have to be in it to win it all the time.

Have a great year. Stop by my site or kick the tires and become a subscriber. It should be a year filled with opportunities.

$SPY, $QQQ, $TNA, $EURO, $UUP

 

 

Read More

From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma

Something big has been going on in Big Pharma . The sector is no longer boring and the group is blowing higher out of multi-year down trends. Most pay a sweet dividend. Keep them on your radar for 2012, especially if things get ugly in the general market. You may want to wait for pullbacks to enter.

$BMY has broken out of a four year base on volume. Yields about 4%

bmy1 300x198 From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma
BMY

$MRK also breaking out of a four year base and downtrend line on volume. Yields about 4.5%

mrk 300x202 From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma
MRK

$ABT also is breaking out of a four base and downtrend line. My subscribers own this one. Looks much higher. Yields about 3.5%.

abt 300x196 From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma
ABT

$PFE has also exploded out of a four year base and downtrend. Yields about 3.7%

pfe 300x202 From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma
PFE

$LLY is going too. Yields about 4.7%

lly 300x198 From Mundane to Momo, Pharma Has Karma
LLY

For more detailed recommendations you can subscribe here. Have a great weekend.

Read More

2012 Predictions

cat1 227x300 2012 Predictions

OK, it’s time to channel my best Kreskin and make some predictions. I think when we look back at 2011, our richest memory will be that Coca-Cola came in a white can for a few weeks. I think the Myan calendar says we will have World War 3 sometime in December of 2012 and Nostradamus also has some sort of Apocalyptic call for the coming year. Let’s not forget about Planetary Alignment and the Nibiru planet. So scary.

Here goes.

Romney will win the nomination and beat Obama. It will be a landslide. Gingrich will not get to fulfill his dream of bathing in Taft’s bathtub.

Europe hasn’t even warmed up yet, still in the third inning. Decades of cradle to grave thinking wont get remedied by the ECB, the IMF or the hand of God. It’s time for pain and the piper must get paid.

Europe is already in recession and will fall into a deep, deep recession, almost a Depression.

Some European banks go belly up, probably $STD first then others. Contagion fears will crush our market. $EWP

The euro will become pixie dust and the greenback will rip higher. Be short the former and long the latter.

Gold will tag 1200-1300. Silver will trade to 15.

Not even the Vatican will be able to save Italy $EWI

$AAPL may tag 500, but the reality of Steve Jobs absence will finally grow roots. It will now be a value stock. Cook may split the stock and pay a special dividend. This will be the nail in the coffin.

$RIMM will get bought out in the low 20′s.

$MCP will break 10

Forensic accountants find the billion that was lost at MF Global. A bookie in Staten Island took a Bears/Packers parlay from Corzine. The money is gone.

There will eventually be a “take under” at $YHOO. We will all laugh.

The Mets will win 75 games.

Property prices in China will collapse like a house of cards.

New information reveals that Mitt Romney pulls cheese off pizza & removes skin from KFC. Chris Christie says he’s now very interested in VP position.

India and Japan trade even lower.

Weathermen in Russia can get fined for bad forecasts. In a bold move by the financial media, perpetually wrong pundits get verbally berated on TV while wearing a clown suit. They will continue to make bad calls and only look at this as a right of passage.

Something bad happens to Iran.

There will be another Arab spring. This one will be even worse.

John Paulson writes a bestseller called “One Hit Wonder”

John Corzime never shaves again and joins a circus.

The banks will be finished soon. $XLF will break October lows and see 9-10 bucks.

The S&P will lose 200-300 handles from here, but then we will see a face ripping mind bending rally of epic proportions. Stocks aren’t cheap, they will get cheap.

***I am looking ahead to an awesome year both long and short. If you would like information about subscribing to this site email: upsidetrader@gmail.com

Good luck next year and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read More

About Those Pundits

pundits1 300x197 About Those Pundits

I had a better shot at winning Powerball than being long Venezuela and short Greece this year. If you were, I bow at your altar. Those that make long term forecasts are paid to take up our time, those that listen, deserve what they get. Bulge bracket firms need to justify their existence. When they aren’t firing thousands of people or defending themselves to the SEC or the Senate, they make long term macro calls at the beginning of the year. The analyst community gets giddy when they do it and Barrons always puts it on the front page. It’s that special time of year when all the charlatans in their ivory towers get recognition for completely sucking at what they do for a living. This year they mostly changed those calls around August because they were so completely wrong, in fact not even close.

These reports are aesthetically pleasing to the eye. They come in beautiful PDF form with pretty colors and pie charts, or you can get a lovely bound edition. Hedge funds and advisors love to put the bound ones on their waiting room coffee tables, it makes them look smart, current and so well read. At least until the time comes, like mid year, when they change everything again because their calls were so bad.

We are about thirteen days away form the 2012 kickoff. I cant wait to see what these balance sheet bozos have in store for us this time.

The chart below is form the boys at Bespoke.

 

bespoke12 About Those Pundits

Read More