Weekend Market Report- 9/20/26
Last week was choppy and split. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years, lifting the funds rate 25 basis points to a 3.75–4.00 percent range. Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments were read as hawkish, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed back above 5 percent, its highest level since 2007. Oil stayed elevated, with Brent hovering near 104 after earlier spikes tied to Middle East supply worries. Those two forces—higher yields and sticky energy prices—kept a lid on risk appetite.
The scoreboard reflected the split personality. The Dow dropped about 1.7 percent for the week, closing at 51,682.64. The S&P 500 finished essentially flat to slightly lower at 7,650.50. The Nasdaq bucked the trend, gaining 0.7 percent to close at 26,522.55. Small caps lagged again. Technology and semiconductors recovered after an early-week AI-regulation scare, while utilities and materials lagged. Crypto-related names stood out: COIN and HOOD posted strong gains. GM and QCOM were among the notable large-cap decliners.
Looking ahead to the week of September 21–25
The calendar is lighter after last week’s Fed decision, so oil prices and Treasury yields will likely remain the primary drivers. Wednesday’s flash S&P Global PMIs will give the first read on September manufacturing and services activity. Thursday brings initial jobless claims, new home sales, and the current-account balance. Friday features preliminary durable goods orders for August and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
Notable earnings include AZO on Tuesday, CTAS, GIS, and PAYX on Wednesday, and COST on Thursday. A possible Trump-Xi meeting in Washington is also on the radar and could move sentiment around trade and geopolitics.
Watch whether the 10-year can stay above 5 percent and whether crude holds its recent range. A drop in either would ease pressure on rate-sensitive and consumer names. A further push higher in yields or oil would keep the rotation away from cyclicals and toward quality growth.
Stay selective. The market is still digesting tighter policy and energy costs. Position sizing and risk management matter more than chasing last week’s winners.
Setups I like: PLTR, NVDA, CRDO, AAOI, NBIS, MRVL, INTC
The chip space SOXX/SMH/SOXL looks like it wants to go again, so keep your eye on this space.
The semiconductor complex still has the AI capex tailwind (HBM, custom ASICs, foundry capacity, and networking) even after the summer volatility. SMH itself is holding a constructive higher-low structure above its rising 50- and 200-day averages with resistance near $581. Individual names are not all in the same place on the chart, so the five that currently look the cleanest for a next-leg higher are below. Prices are as of the Sep 18 close.
1. AMD (~$560)
This is the sharpest technical setup in the group right now. AMD confirmed a double-bottom breakout above the $530 area, printed a 10-week high, and closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle. It sits well above the 50-day (~$496) and 200-day (~$355) moving averages, with the MACD improving. Pattern and Fibonacci projections point toward $628–$659 first, then $684. Short-term it is extended (RSI mid-60s, pressing the upper Bollinger), so a shallow pullback toward $530–$540 would be the higher-quality add. Catalyst remains MI300/inference share plus agentic-AI CPU demand.
2. TSM (~$435)
The foundry that actually makes the leading-edge AI silicon. TSM has a golden-cross alignment, trades above its 50- and 200-day averages, and is holding the June breakout shelf / rising trendline in the $404–$413 zone. RSI is still in the mid-range (~57–61), so it has room to move. 52-week high is $479; a clean push through $443–$450 opens the path back toward that high and beyond.
3. MU (~$1,016)
Memory (especially HBM) is the tightest part of the AI supply chain. MU already broke a multi-month symmetrical triangle earlier in September, and Goldman flagged the same memory-group breakout pattern. It is now working off the June $1,255 high and sitting above the 50-day. Next technical test is the $1,035–$1,050 pivot; a hold and push through there targets a retest of the highs. Earnings at month-end is the near-term catalyst. Volatility is high, so size accordingly.
4. AVGO (~$358)
This is the “discounted compounder” setup. Broadcom just guided AI semiconductor revenue toward $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28, yet the stock is still ~28% below its high and trading below the 50-day. RSI is neutral (~45), and it is coiling in a range. A reclaim of the $370–$380 zone would confirm the next impulse. Custom XPU + Tomahawk networking gives it a different (and still very large) slice of the same AI spend that is driving NVDA. Analysts still see 40 %+ upside from here.
5. MRVL (~$244)
Marvell is the other custom-silicon / data-center networking name that has lagged the leaders (still ~26 % off the $330 high). It just printed a strong rebound week, is back above its short-term moving averages, and data centers now dominate revenue. The chart needs a daily close above the recent $254–$255 pivot to confirm the next leg; until then, it is a constructive higher-low recovery. Same AI-infrastructure demand, cheaper relative valuation than NVDA.
How I’d watch them:
AMD and TSM are the “already breaking out / holding the breakout” names.
MU, AVGO, and MRVL are the “base-and-go / mean-reversion” names with more leftover fuel if the sector rotates.
Risks are real: any pause in hyperscaler capex, HBM tightness turning into allocation fights, or a broader risk-off tape can hit all of them hard. These are high-beta names. Use stops, don’t chase extended daily candles, and treat this as a watchlist, not a buy list. Markets can stay irrational longer than a chart pattern looks pretty.
See you in the morning.