Markets Mixed After Oil Spike and Hot Jobs Report — CPI Next

Last week’s markets (week of August 31–September 4, 2026) were a classic tug-of-war between geopolitics, energy prices, and shifting Fed expectations. Stocks finished mixed after a volatile five sessions, with the Nasdaq eking out a modest gain while the Dow slipped. The standout theme was a sharp jump in oil on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, which lifted inflation worries and Treasury yields before Friday’s hotter-than-expected jobs report locked in higher odds of a September rate hike.

How the Major Indexes Finished

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,718.60, up about 0.1% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 26,506.99, helped by semiconductors and software names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 53,414.25. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies was essentially flat, up 0.1%

August as a whole was still positive: the S&P 500 gained roughly 2.6%, the Nasdaq more than 3.9%, and the Dow about 1.3%. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up around 13%. Volatility stayed contained—the VIX hovered near 14.5.

Energy and communications were among the stronger S&P 500 sectors. Transports and consumer services lagged. Chipmakers such as AMD, Micron, and SanDisk posted solid gains, while Lululemon dropped more than 17% after cutting its full-year outlook.

The Week’s Main Drivers

Oil was the dominant story. Escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict sent WTI crude higher by roughly 7–10% on the week, closing near $91.20–$91.50. Brent traded around $95–$96. Diesel prices hit a record $5.85 a gallon. Higher energy costs immediately fed inflation fears and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.78–4.82% at points during the week.

Fed-speak added to the swings. Comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday—that he could support holding rates if upcoming inflation data cools, but would back a hike if it does not—sparked a 1%+ rally that day. Nvidia’s $12.9 billion deal to acquire Hugging Face also lifted sentiment in AI-related names. Strong software earnings (Snowflake beat estimates and raised guidance, sending the stock up more than 20%) provided additional support mid-week.

Friday’s August employment report changed the tone. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 versus expectations of around 56,000. Prior months were revised higher. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Markets quickly priced in a roughly 58% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, up from the mid-40s earlier in the week. Stocks sold off into the Labor Day weekend.

The current federal funds target remains 3.50–3.75%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the committee have kept rates unchanged at recent meetings while watching energy-driven inflation.

What to Expect This Week (September 7–11)

U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The real action starts Tuesday and builds toward Friday’s CPI report—the last major inflation print before the FOMC decision.

Key economic calendar

Tuesday, Sept. 8: Consumer credit (3:00 p.m.). NFIB small-business optimism and some international data (Japan GDP final, China trade figures) also land.

Thursday, Sept. 10: August PPI (8:30 a.m.) and existing-home sales (10:00 a.m.). The ECB announces its rate decision (expected to hike 25 bp; markets assign high odds). Press conference follows.

Friday, Sept. 11: August CPI (8:30 a.m.)—the week’s most important number. University of Michigan consumer sentiment (10:00 a.m.) and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

A hotter-than-expected CPI or PPI would reinforce the case for a September Fed hike and likely put downward pressure on stocks and bonds. A cooler print could ease those fears and support a rebound.

Earnings to watch: Oracle and Adobe report after the close on Thursday. Other names include Chewy, Macy’s, Casey’s General Stores, GameStop, Kroger (Friday), and AeroVironment. These reports will test whether software and consumer spending remain resilient amid higher rates and energy costs.

Geopolitics and oil remain wild cards. Any further escalation in Iran could keep crude elevated and inflation sticky heading into the FOMC.

Investors should also note that September has historically been a weaker month for equities. With the S&P 500 still near recent highs and rate-hike odds elevated, expect choppy trading until the inflation data and Fed meeting provide clearer direction.

Stay focused on the incoming data rather than short-term noise. The combination of energy prices, labor-market strength, and next week’s inflation prints will set the tone for the rest of September.

Names to watch into year-end:

VST off the bottom, insider buying, probably a bottoming setup.

ORCL– Software is finally showing its stuff, and this one has lagged. Weekly MACD has crossed up for the first time since April.

HIVE and IREN—both have transitioned from crypto mining to data centers. Both are setting up.

INTC– Feels like it bottomed last week.

NBIS– Probably double-bottomed last week.

TEM– Flagging on the daily chart after the rebound.

NVDA– Everyone should own some as a core holding.

SPCX– Setting up after strong pop Thursday. At breakout spot.

MRVL and MU should both go much higher; both have 2X long ETFs if you want a little more risk.

TSLA– Fun stat…Seasonality favors $TSLA
Next week  +4.5% average gain over the past 15 years.

Enjoy the day, back at it tomorrow.