Weekend Market Recap — April 25, 2026
What a week. For the fourth straight week, the bulls held the line, and by Friday they were doing a victory lap.
The S&P 500 ended the week modestly higher, closing Friday at 7,165, its second consecutive record close. The Nasdaq was the real star, jumping 1.63% on Friday alone to finish at 24,837 — also a new all-time high. The Dow lagged, slipping slightly on the day as cyclicals pulled back while chip stocks stole every headline. The semiconductor index put on arguably its most impressive stretch in history, entering the weekend on an 18-session winning streak and up more than 10% for the week alone. Year to date, it’s up 50%.
You can thank Intel for Friday’s fireworks. The company reported Q1 earnings Thursday night that were nothing short of stunning — EPS of $0.29 against a Street estimate of $0.02, and revenue of $13.58 billion, blowing past the $12.41 billion consensus. Data center and AI revenue surged 22% year over year. Intel closed Friday up 24%, its best single-day move since October 1987. The stock is now up 124% year to date. The blowout dragged AMD up nearly 14% in sympathy, and Nvidia added more than 4% to retake the $5 trillion market cap milestone. The Philly Semi index broke 10,000 for the first time earlier in the week.
The situation in Iran remains the macro backdrop against which everything else must be navigated. That said, this ceasefire has been more of a slow leak than a clean pause. Iran seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz mid-week. Iranian officials declared reopening the strait impossible while a U.S. blockade remains in place, and Brent briefly crossed $100 again on Wednesday before pulling back. The market largely shrugged, focusing on chips and earnings rather than tankers and warships.
Earnings have been a bright spot. With just over a quarter of S&P 500 companies having reported, more than 80% have beaten both EPS and revenue estimates. That’s above the historical average, and it’s one reason why stocks have been able to keep climbing even as the geopolitical situation stays messy. The earnings picture, at least for now, is providing a floor.
On the Fed front, Powell’s replacement is becoming clearer. The Justice Department ended its probe into Powell, paving the way for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation vote. Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee this week and made headlines by suggesting he’d prefer to measure inflation using “trimmed averages” that strip out extreme price shocks — a methodology that would arguably give the Fed more room to cut. Traders are pricing only a 31% chance of any rate move before year-end.
Looking ahead, next week is the biggest earnings week of the year. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta all report on Wednesday, the 29th. Those four names are the largest AI spenders on the planet, and their capital expenditure guidance will be watched as closely as their actual numbers. Any hint of a pullback in AI infrastructure spending would be a serious headwind for the semiconductor rally.
Trip canceled.
The bulls have control right now. The question is whether a shaky ceasefire, $97 oil, and a consumer that’s starting to flinch can hold together long enough for the mega-cap earnings to keep delivering.
Some food for thought………………………………………
You saw the SMH chart at the top of this post.
On Friday, there was a large, unusual options sweep on SOXX, with a trader buying 1,152 put contracts at the $460 strike expiring on May 1, 2026. The total premium paid was $1.2M, executed as a sweep at the ask price of $10.70, signaling aggressive and urgent bearish positioning in the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
The contracts were bought at the ask price ($10.70), reinforcing the aggressive nature of the order flow. With SOXX trading at $462.62 at the time of the sweep, this trade represents a significant near-term bearish bet — just one week before expiration — suggesting the trader expects a pullback from the ETF’s recent historic winning streak.
What’s Happening with SOXX
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has been on a historic run, posting 16 consecutive winning sessions — one of the longest winning streaks in the ETF’s history. This rally has been driven by renewed optimism about AI chip demand, strong earnings from major holdings including Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC, and easing trade-war concerns following signals of potential tariff relief between the U.S. and China.
However, the semiconductor sector remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, export restrictions, and macroeconomic shifts. The $1.2M put sweep targeting the May 1 expiration — just one week out — suggests at least one large institutional player is hedging against or outright betting on a near-term reversal after the ETF’s extended run-up.
So, if this line of thinking interests you, and you think SMH/SOX could see some hardcore short-term profit taking, you could: 1- play some puts, 2-you can just short SMH, or 3- if you want the biggest bang (also the biggest risk), you can get long SOXS, which is the 3X short ETF for the semiconductor sector.
I don’t hate the idea, to be honest, but I will let you decide. If I play it, I would probably long SOXS for a trade, and only a trade, not a long swing or an investment.
