Markets enter a potentially pivotal week as the S&P 500 navigates significant geopolitical developments and the year’s most anticipated monetary policy speech.
President Trump’s Alaska summit with Russian President Putin concluded Friday evening without agreement, though Trump characterized the talks as “very productive”.
Monday’s scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy adds another layer of geopolitical complexity for markets to digest.
However, the week’s defining moment arrives Friday morning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s annual Jackson Hole speech, an event historically used to signal major policy shifts and one that could determine the trajectory of rate cut expectations. Market odds for a September 17 rate cut currently stand around 85%, down from near-certainty following recent hot inflation and mixed economic data, while investors are pricing in another cut by year-end with decent chances of a third adjustment.
For now, the markets are coiling/consolidating bullishly around the highs. The Russell is still lagging, but had a better week last week.
Bitcoin and Ethereum pulled back after recent bullish action.
MSTR, just one of the many Bitcoin proxies, is down $100 in a month. BNMR, the MSTR for Ethereum, experienced some profit-taking following a significant move that began about a week ago.
It could be a chppy week coming up based on all the happenings that are scheduled.
Some setups I like are CIFR and IREN, both crypto plays. I love them both long-term. I think you can see multiples over time, but I’m not sure how they will roll this week.
I’m also looking at CRWV after the massive sell-off. Do I dare? The P&L looks excellent, so I’m letting them do what they want for now.
TSLA looks decent, but the next couple of months are seasonally weak for TSLA, and Drunkenmiller, in his 13-F last week, said he closed his entire position. I like the look of the chart and will monitor.
Dare I say biotech looks better? XBI and IBB may be finally setting up. (LABU if you dare).
See you in the morning.