Inflation

Dow: +19.10…
Nasdaq: +108.58… S&P: +19.63…

The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Thursday, setting intraday and closing record highs in the process, as the market reacted positively to a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and a weekly initial claims trend that continued to improve.

The Nasdaq (+0.8%) outperformed and closed near session highs, while the Dow increased just 0.1% and the Russell 2000 decreased 0.7%. The underperformance of the Dow and Russell 2000, which are more cyclically-oriented, contradicted any growth optimism.

US core CPI soared to 3.8% YoY, a level of inflation not seen since 1992. Headline CPI just hit 5.0% YoY, the highest level since August 2008.

Powell says it’s transitory. Powell’s an idiot.

The meme stocks saw profit-taking all day. GME led the way down and names like  CLOV, CLNE, BBIG, AHT, AMC, and WKHS were taken out back and shot. These stocks do have a tendency to regroup and come back though.

I sold HA today, it’s been acting terribly and in hindsight wish I sold it all yesterday on that follow-through rip. Anyway, for now, it just looks like it was a failed breakout. The trade made money, on to the next one.

Bitcoin looks better and I’m starting to think it put in a short-term bottom after that breakaway gap lower on Tuesday. That day it reversed, put in a bullish bar, and has been up the last two days.

Bitcoin proxies like MARA and RIOT still have some work to do after their respective thumpings, but seem to be consolidating. GBTC looks a little better too.

Index hedging has surged lately as people have been buying puts actively.

Add to the mix that loans on SPY ticked higher, post the latest big move up, and it looks many are looking to hedge a correction possibility as we approach the end of H1 2021.

Various sentiment measures are now at multi-month lows, meaning people are feeling “less” bullish.

Imagine a break out to the upside and the pain it would lead to. Get shorty.

Looking for some new ideas.

P&L

 

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