China Deal Is Done, No Worries At All

Yesterday the SPX dropped a quick 10 handles on news that the Phase 1 signing may be moved from November to December. The quick trigger fingers hit bids because no deal is done until it’s done and the fast money ran.

Today, the SPX dropped a quick 10 on news that Trump was getting really high heat from inside the White House about relaxing or removing tariffs. The Dow also dropped a quick 100 points on this headline.

The true believers in a deal getting done aren’t too worried I guess, and there must be a lot of true believers in this deal getting done because they did come in and nibble bids near the end of the day today, but the indexes still closed way off their highs.

Me? I’m the jaded skeptic that believes nothing. There is still a lot that can go wrong between now and when they sign “Phase 1”. If they ever do.

Remember when we were cuddle buddies with the maniac from North Korea? That was a done deal too. The love triangle with Trump, Dennis Rodman, and Rocket Man was just adorable. A few days later he was launching missiles again. It ain’t done until it’s done., and this market has a lot to lose if it doesn’t.

If it doesn’t get done, I would expect 1000 points down in the Dow and maybe 100-150 SPX points lost quickly.

I say this not to be a drag, but buying stocks aggressively at all-time highs with so much uncertainty about a deal is bat shit crazy to me.

Interesting to note, the VIX was almost flat today while the Dow was up almost 300 points at one point and closed green.

Anyway, just giving you the other side of things.

Earnings are almost done. Can’t wait

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