No Ordinary Bull Market


Love the headline, hate the story. Part time and temporary jobs increased in yesterday’s jobs number, the labor participation rate is at historically horrendous levels and wages aren’t increasing. The economy contracted in the first quarter and we are plummeting on investment and competitiveness. 40% of millennials are unemployed.   Interesting though, that since we stopped extended unemployment benefits, many got off the sofa, put down their Doritos and got some work.  That’s a good thing. I will still argue all day long that this is smoke and mirrors, major denial and avoidance behavior.

This doesn’t mean the S&P can’t rally to 2500 over the next couple of years.

The market? Well I’m now convinced you could dirty bomb Times Square and we’d still rally (after a tiny pullback……maybe).  This market will continue to go much higher.  The market isn’t the economy and we are in a new normal or new whatever.  It’s all good for us right now.

Throw away the playbook in this market:

“Investors should acknowledge that this is not an ordinary, average, typical or normal bull market and thus many approaches and metrics are not useful or applicable.”-Lazlo Birinyi yesterday

Uber bull Jeremy Siegel also called for DOW 18,000 by year end and a move to 20,000 after that.

They’ve both been right, lets hope they stay right.

Shorts are on stretchers, so block the noise and trade in the present.

Have a great Independence Day.

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