{+++} The summer doldrums are kicking in early. This sub 12 VIX has everyone droning along and there is little conviction. Given the low volumes, plus the World Cup starting today as a big distraction, this is going to be a dull tape. I still can’t fade a dull tape here.
One issue is that mom and pop are getting more bullish. The latest AAII data saw the percentage of individual investors saying they were bullish rising from 39.5% to 44.7%, making a high for 2014. The bears’ percentage fell to a fifteen week low. So there’s that. What else? Let’s get to it.
One topic that needs to be mentioned today is Iraq and the troubling rise of an al-Qaeda splinter group there. The other day these terrorists seized control of Mosul and news that they had seized Turkish diplomats hit Turkish markets to the tune of over 3% and the TRY had its biggest drop since December. Today, though, there is news that the diplomats will be released (what nice terrorists) and the Turkish stock index is up 93 bps at this hour. Right now, the Iraqi government is trying to get the U.S. to use airpower to thwart this ISIS group and the U.S. is reluctant so far. Brent crude is looking as high as it has in three years. Will this hurt global consumers? Very possible and that’s the biggest concern I have right now markets wise.
Just be careful out there. I took some partial profits and will raise stops on the P&L tonight.