Hey Market, Get Over Yourself and Cowboy Up

The market is already tapering. It doesn’t need Ben. The 10 and 30 year treasuries told you that lately and today.  These rates haven’t been here since April of last year.

Tipper, taper, Tepper, topper. There’s a buzzword or phrase for every freaking calamity in this market.

Stocks got sold across the board today. No mercy. They raided the cat house and threw out the baby, the bathwater, the hookers and the piano player.  I heard Bernanke today. He seemed very schmoozy to me. He’ll still be around with the heroin drip, but not for much longer. The market discounts and reprices these things months in advance. Surprised? You shouldn’t be.

Money is still historically cheap, but mortgage rates are going to catch some upticks. It was hard to get financing before, it will be harder now. You’re credit score will need to be like a perfect bazillion. It may have a positive short term impact on housing, as folks chase rates. As humans, we always want something more, when we think its getting taken away.

I still think we’re going much higher, as we wait for the market to get repriced and reshuffled here. The market is the perfect pricing mechanism. Some times it gets oversold and overbought. You can always throw in the towel and go by Turkish equities. I hear there is much stability in other parts of the world compared to us. Even with tepid growth we still kick everyone’s ass.

$SPX support levels are: 1618 then 1598. The 50 day moving average, or thereabout, has been good support. We’ll see if that remains true. If those levels don’t hols then 1570 and 1540 may be on deck.

The financials have been great, but if you look at a chart of $XLF, it could easily test its 50 day moving average around 19.22, it closed today at 19.60. I thought it may have hit that level a couple of weeks ago when we pulled back the first time, but it managed a rally.


The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX ) also looks like it may want to go down and retest its 50 day moving average.


If these moving averages hold, this is nothing more than a pullback. If they break their moving averages with authority (meaning very high volume) that could be a different story. In any event, it should be a good trading market in the coming days. Expect big intraday moves.

Today was a day where the Fed and the FOMC jammed about a year of “what could be’s” into their rate policy. They pretty much suck at forecasts, so today’s rhetoric was a complete overreaction. But that’s what markets do.

Make your watch list and get ready.

The Fed will probably remain data dependent and the market will remain Fed dependent for a while. The sooner we discount the end of QE, the better for everybody though. Hey, wasn’t it supposed to be good for stocks when the bond market started to buckle? Stay tuned.

Good luck the rest of the week.

Oh, and where’s this going?



Take a free trial here



Previous Post
Fed Day Tapernomics
Next Post
Thursday Market Wrap

Recent Articles