Reality Check

“Charts always look like Picasso’s until they don’t”–Me

If you watch CNBC you had the greatest month since Catherine the Great had a horse lowered upon her, if you were trading long today, maybe not so much. Bob Pisani cheerily led the charge all month, happily barking statistics and he seemed genuinely disappointed  that today’s market went out with a bang (much lower) and not a whimper.

This is the state of our market. What concerns me greatly is Europe. They suck. Greece is making some negative noise and the conversation turns to Italy. Everything was fixed right? As I  said in the blog this morning there are many little devils in the Euro details. Headlines are one thing, the details are quite another.

I really am concerned about the dollar, that is all that matters right now.  As you know, my macro view is that Europe breaks apart in to little pieces and falls into the Mediterranean piece by piece, however I thought the bulls had the hill for at least a little bit in here.

If the dollar gets its groove on all bets are off. $UUP

The greenback landed on support and reversed hard to the upside, This will suck for stocks and commodities if this continues. $EURUSD


The Euro( above) hit 200 day resistance and backed off.

All that matters now is the dollar. The folks that used to tell you that a strong dollar was good for the economy (Kudlow) are wrong. This is a different time and place. The dollar needs to be strong organically, not because the Euro is imploding.

If you are a trader, this is all that matters right now and the market will not go up without a weak dollar, forget the noise. I got stopped on a couple of longs today and went breakeven on a couple. I also made money on some leftovers like $RENN.

There are still some beautiful long set ups and also some nice short set ups. I expect nothing else but a battle here. I think the bulls still have control , but I respect the bears. The market isn’t the economy and everyone has an agenda.

If anyone would like to see my P&L or see what I did today just email me at: [email protected]

Stop bitching, it’s the market. If you got bitched slapped and surprised, so did I, although damage to the bow was minimal.





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