Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.– Pericles (430 B.C.)
A mulligan is cool on the golf course among friends after you duck hooked or shanked your first shot off a pelican’s beak leaving him paralyzed or dead. A do over doesn’t happen in the market and after the wuda cuda shuda’s ruin your weekend, it’s time to get back to business.
There is a massive flow of date this week and most of it should be lousy. The bears come in to the week empowered, fresh off a massive shot of adrenaline to the aorta, feeling fearless and looking for a fight.
The bulls have nothing, not a a catalyst in sight and the” hedge funders” have the risk department hanging on them like a cheap suit right about now. You may hear chatter that a hedge fund is going out of business and has to liquidate, you may hear that China gas decided to bring itself public as a nation via a reverse merger. If we break 1250 with conviction, you will hear even more. Most of it is nonsense.
Price and volume always tells the story. The shorts are looking for a light volume rally to short more. The trapped bulls right now may be waiting for that same rally to take more off. Reversals usually don’t happen in a day and the first one is usually a head fake.
I’m still looking for a bounce, but the duration and breadth will be interesting to watch. Good luck this week.
| date | report | Consensus | previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 14 | Retail sales | -0.7% | 0.5% |
| June 14 | Retail sales ex-autos | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| June 14 | Producer price index | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| June 14 | Core PPI | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| June 14 | Inventories | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| June 15 | Consumer price index | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| June 15 | Core CPI | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| June 15 | Empire state index | 13.3 | 11.9 |
| June 15 | Industrial production | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| June 15 | Capacity utilization | 77.0% | 76.9% |
| June 15 | Homebuilders’ index | 16 | 16 |
| June 16 | Jobless claims | 425,000 | 427,000 |
| June 16 | Housing starts | 550,000 | 523,000 |
| June 16 | Philly Fed | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| June 17 | Consumer sentiment | 73.5 | 74.3 |
| June 17 | Leading indicators | 0.3% | -0.3% |