The Wrap 3/15/11

{+++} It was a long day. A big gap down followed by a short consolidation and then a decent rally off the lows. Is the sell off over?  Please circle today’s low on the S&P as your new line in the sand. We may chop and see some consolidation for a few days before anything meaningful happens in either direction.

Leaders like AAPL, AMZN and IBM continue to struggle. They need to be watched closely as they will give a “tell” as to where we are going.

Please see the P&L for updates and any changes for stops and entries. I covered shorts today, not because I think the move to the downside is over, but because I thought we would rally and we did. It could have went the other way so I am happy.

I sent out an email alert pre market suggesting that we hold our longs and let the fear trade take its course.

I did not trigger some shorts because they gapped down through the trigger, then reversed higher, We short weakness, not when they reverse higher. I have left them on the list, so on a return to these levels with volume, they will definitely be shorts.

I am on the hunt for more ideas, but frankly if we go lower, I like the ones we exited today for a revisit.

I continue to be agnostic with no real horse in the race, until we can get a solid trend, and that can be up or down.

The question now is, will they sell any further rally with passion and volume? That’s key. We have seen almost a double in the S&P, a 10-15% correction would not surprise me at all. Caution rules the day, we may rally for a day or two, but then I will be looking to short some more.

I have a Webinar scheduled for tomorrow evening at 8pm eastern time. Have a great evening and rest well.

Joe