The Wrap 6/21/10


The overnight euphoria in the futures lasted until about 10:30 AM when a slow, steady drift took prices lower.

The China blah blah blah helped overnight futures and the first hour and that was that. The bulls held the 200 day SMA and at the end of the day the ball is still in their court. I trust the financials here as much as I trust my little ones at a Michael Jackson sleepover. Yes, he’s dead , but I still like the analogy.

We took some profits, added a few names and took some small stops. The market didn’t take good news today , but took lousy retail sales and fledgling employment numbers well last week. So how do you gauge this market? You trade it.

I personally believe the next 100 S&P points will be down NOT up, so naturally I am always the jaded skeptic. If I’m wrong, we’ll still have long exposure, maybe just not enough. I can live with that.

We can still rally through the end of June without a big problem though, as sellers seem weak.  Things change by the hour around here so stay tuned.

I looked at about 75 fifteen minute charts after the close and they all rolled over. Not bullish and there really isn’t an optimistic takeaway from my perch based on today’s action.

We have a few shorts via FAZ and SMN, but we took half profits in both. We also have MON and MOS short which were added intra-day. The agriculture/ fertilizer stocks look bad. POT and AGU may also be starting to quit.

UPI caught a seller today when the market rolled over. The daily still looks just fine, I even picked up some on the dip. I will be watching it closely and will be watching volume.

We need to be mentally prepared to go either way here. It is “so human nature” to come in at 9:30 with a certain viewpoint. God knows I’m full of opinions. The only thing that matters at the end of the day is being right more than you were wrong, so let’s stay fleet of foot here.

I don’t have any names tonight but that could change tomorrow.

P.S. HOUSEKEEPING: I raised prices monthly and annually, this will NOT effect you guys when you renew as you will stay at the OLD rate on both monthly and annual renewals. This new pricing will only be for NEW subscribers going forward. You guys have been loyal and I want to let you know I appreciate that.

Thank You,


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