The Wrap 6/17/10

{+++}The technicals were mixed today and volume was light, but the market staged a late day rally causing a mild short squeeze.

The market debate doesn’t get much simpler than this from my perch and that is:

–will the market rally into the end of the month because portfolio managers need to chase performance? there certainly aren’t any real sellers around.

–it’s a decent argument, and I’ve seen that dynamic hold true on many occasions. Hedgies got burned badly in May and may want to “get even”.

— if it was that easy though, we could all quit our jobs, go fishing , and come back to our screens two weeks before the end of each month or quarter and just make money.

–The BP mess seems to be “in” the market by now so I don’t see any surprises there.

— Europe could blow up again as their bank stress tests are coming up. I remember our markets were lower during the time leading up to our own stress tests.

I’m leaning slightly bullish into months end as I see the existing headwinds dying down a bit, BUT, I believe we will retest the lows made a couple of weeks ago. One reason is the XLF, if you look at the daily chart it is running into massive moving average resistance, if it gets turned away, which I think it may, this market doesn’t have a shot of moving higher. If it can breach that resistance than it will be a different story and we will move higher.

We’ll just trade them like we see them in the interim. Here are a few longs for the radar. We took the other half of CRUS off at the open today for a nice turn in a couple of days. I will have the P&L updated with all the net returns this weekend.

P.S. Housekeeping: If you guys have any technical issues ever, please e-mail  [email protected]   also they may be doing site maintenance tonight staring around 10pPM est. Have a great night and I will see you tomorrow.

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