The Morning Morsel-Golddollar

The U.S. Dollar
The U.S. Dollar

An arena large as Europe Silent waiting the contest- F.R. Scott

The dollar is exploding and so is gold, oil is getting crushed, materials trade with no bid so don’t ask and semi’s and tech look horrible. There are enough global investors that think we (U.S.A.) are close enough to Europe on the fear meter to put a huge bid in gold ( could be Glen Beck buying too, not sure). The misanthropes in Congress and in the White House, who don’t know a stock from  stock are driving the bus, while at the same time  driving the market into the ground. The financials have NO SHOT with this crap and if the financials don’t have a prayer, neither does the market. Don’t get me wrong, we will have 100-200 point rallies on the way up, but we will also have hair trigger mini implosions on the way down.

China exports a bunch o’ stuff to Europe so contagion doesn’t just effect Europe, the cancer has tentacles, it just takes while before you feel the death grip. This market is as fragile as an egg and one loud cough and we could see another whack like the crash of 2:45. Markets don’t drop a thousand if things are swell. Rental market, don’t fall in love. Weak underpinnings in here.

Europe could be a short for the next five years, does that mean you short the Euro today? No. Does it mean you go out and short EWP (Spain) which is down 30% in three weeks? Not necessarily. It does mean they will be shorts again most likely, and you will have to tolerate and “trade” the incessant ebb and flow of the headlines, because that’s all it is right now, one big headline market. Charts are still fairly meaningless to me now,although better than they were a day or two after the crash. Right now it’s all fear and greed baby, and who can hit the button first. Be positioned.

We had a great week on the Premium Site and the following is a decent snapshot of   some long/short activity last week.

X +8%, LLEN +6.5 %, DCTH +9%, AGM +4%, AMLN +0.2%, RIMM +2.2%, DRV +9,9%, TZA +9.0%  AIG -7.0%

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Monday, May 17, 2010
08:30 US May Empire Manufacturing, Chile April Copper Exports
09:00 US March Long-Term TIC Flows
13:00 US May NAHB Housing Market
17:00 Colombia March Trade Balance
JP Morgan Tech, Media and Telecom Conference. Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference. American Gas Association Financial Forum. EPG Conference. Ex-dividend: AFL $0.28, CVX $0.72, MRO $0.24, SUN $0.15, XLNX $0.16.
Before the Open: DL, LOW, PWRD, RINO. After the Close: A, GA, SINA.
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