My 2010 Predictions

The Big Kahuna is but days away, another decade begins and I’m another year wiser. Correction, after 2008 and 2009 I’m a freaking genius. We stood on the precipice of Armageddon in March, but the bulls took charge and said “not on my watch.” We recovered from major household financial names going bankrupt, we saw the Big Three become the Big Zero and we kicked off the New Year with many fears and anxieties. I’ve been trading for twenty five years and if I live to be a hundred I doubt if I will ever witness such fascinating times again. My kids may, I’ll tell them to go short when I did, but to get long sooner than I did.

The following are my predictions, of course all of them will be spot on.

Goldman goes private and reopens their partners dining room.

Tiger Woods will make a huge comeback and will become the George Clooney of golf.

Israel will hit Iran by May.

Oil will respond fast if this happens and will begin a move to well over $150 as Iran hits the oil fields in Saudi Arabia.

Rates will go higher with or without the Fed and that will choke off any recovery in housing. The 10 year treasury yield ends the year around 4.30%

No matter what happens to the market, Apple will go higher because that’s what it does.

Technology should do well on a relative basis.

Materials and commodities will continue their bull market.

TBT will go much higher.

Financials will correct after a quick move higher. They can’t borrow from the Fed and loan to the Treasury forever. Their model is broken.

The market will start a 10-15% correction after first quarter earning season, but no later than March.

The S&P will end 2010 around 1150, after a visit to the 950 level.

The fourth quarter will be great for stocks, in the interim it will be a phenomenal traders market.

The dollar will go higher not lower as mid east geopolitics and global sovereign risks take center stage.

A new cold war starts with Russia.

Central banks will stop buying gold like jonesing crack heads and the yellow rock will end the year under $1000.

Former condo flippers will all want to be farmers, similar to the 1970’s wildcatter movement.

A major bank will ask for TARP 2.

Unemployment will tag 10.5% as we have an epic jobless recovery, emphasis on jobless.

There will be a landslide victory in for the Republicans in November and tax hikes will be avoided.

Rahm Emmanuel will resign as chief of staff.

Obama’s approval rating breaks 20%.

It will continue to be a traders market as buy and hold has left the building for decades, until a new generation finds out the hard way that it’s a broken model.

Bloomberg TV will go mainstream and CNBC will struggle for viewers.

David Faber will go to Bloomberg.

Cramer will have a breakdown.

Fox Biz won’t exist by year end, even though it’s better than CNBC, but Real Housewives of Orange County is better.

Even more hedge funds will use black boxes leading to even more volatility in the market and by the end of the next decade only a few humans will actually trade.

The days of 20 point intraday moves in the DOW 30 are gone forever as 100 point swings become the new range.

China will have a tough second half as their GDP growth calculators only go up to 10%.

M&A will be hot in the first quarter. The action will be in the oil/gas patch and materials.

3D-TV will be all the rage.

XHB will break double digits.

Larry Kudlow will finally break down in tears on national tv and do a Mea Culpa.

China will start owning us big time, land, properties etc.., wouldn’t you?

Howard Lindzon will grow a beard, the motorcycle was just a start.

SAC Capital may shut doors as insider trading scandal gets legs.

Dendreon will get bought out at $40+

Human Gemome will get bought out at $40+

RIMM will finally get bought out by Microsoft at $90+

FSLR will break $100.

The SEC still won’t get a short sale rule passed, they’re still catching up on the Madoff tips.

The peeps in Iran will revolt and it will get legs.

Fannie and Freddie will trade at a penny but will get nationalized.

AIG will ultimately trade at $10.

Meredith Whitney will become a carnival act, Roubini too, although some have a talent of making one great call last a life time. We’ve all had a great trade but no cameras were shooting.

The mortgage modification plan will be an epic fail as folks still can’t pay the piper.

There will be a “cash for I’m depressed” program, it will be a huge hit.

Lady Gaga gets bigger than Madonna, but leaves the music business and starts a hedge fund.

The passing of the healthcare plan will be the peak for liberalism as the country goes center right.

We will have a significant terrorist attack on our shores, I pray that I’m wrong on this one.

Nancy Pelosi and Janet Reno become lovers.

Eliot Spitzer plays Moses in the Broadway revival of the Ten Commandments.

ACORN opens a Cathouse next to the Bunny Ranch in Vegas, they get sued, but get defended by the ACLU. Eliot Spitzer works the bar.

Apple will release “The Tablet” and it will rock.

Charlie Sheen will finally go to prison for beating on women and will commit suicide.

People that get too complacent about their stock holdings will get their faces raked.

The beat goes on, it always does, have a Happy New Year!!!!

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