Retail Sales

An earlier rally in futures gave it back as retail same store sales hit the wires. Macy’s down 9%, Limited down 7%, Costco and BJ’s saw sales fall. Bank of England said they would keep rates at 0.5% ( like us, so much room to work with there.) The dollar is slightly lower and we will see if commodities follow through to th downside or catch a rally. Goldman is getting bullish on oil again and this is what they said this morning:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for U.S. benchmark oil by 31 percent to $85 a barrel for the end of 2009 and predicted further gains next year as demand recovers and supplies shrink.

“As the financial crisis eases, an energy shortage lies ahead,” Goldman analysts Jeffrey Currie in London and David Greely in New York said in a report e-mailed today. The bank set a 12-month price target of $90 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude, up from $70, and introduced a forecast of $95 for the end of 2010. The rally has been driven by the “unwinding of pricing dislocations caused by the credit crisis,” Goldman said in the report dated June 3. It’s a “prologue,” to a price recovery in the second half of the year as the global economy stabilizes and crude inventories decline, the bank said.

My spin? 95% of analysts are useless so I will watch the tape and make up my own mind.

Ongoing jobless claims dipped by 4000 last week. Have a great day.

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