Rallies Are Made To Be Sold, and We Did

{+++}We took some profits today on some names that have been on the list for a few weeks. All the “good” news is out on the banks unless some other broken institution announces a spot secondary for 800 million shares. This was a true beauty orchestrated by Geithner and GS (and the players at the Fed) and please realize that “Mother Fed” won’t be around forever, unless of course we go to zero on rates and that is only a down tick away,  that would be a psychological mess for the market. Today the Fed announced that they will be buying even more debt and that sent rates even lower, the greenback plunged too. TLT rallied and TBT sold off. just when I thought the latter was about to take off.

Is energy rallying higher on organic demand? If you believe that I have a beautiful bridge in lower Manhattan to sell you. Is it up because of the falling dollar? Maybe a bit but I believe in my heart of hearts that it is only a temporary weak  dollar play. There is NO organic growth, the uptick in copper and other commodities is really based on China buying everything in sight as investment. Last I checked, copper goes into new homes and commercial infrastructure, I’m not seeing much of that. The “petrodollar” play that so many “long” oil bulls will tell you is in play is just a fart in a windstorm. That argument was soooo oil at $140, hopefully we’re smarter now. Besides how could oil possibly go higher when we all will be driving Big Wheels to work soon?

The bullishness in fertilizer stocks is almost bearish in a way as it telegraphs a message to me that “well people still need to eat -right”?  How is the big picture you ask? Well Timmy G told us today that “the economic recovery in 2009 will be weaker than we thought and the recovery in 2010 will be weaker than anticipated.” If you need a road map let me know. The pump is done by GS and the boys and now Tim is slowly “buying back the sale” to America. Stay tuned. Let’s see what the financials do now. Cautious as hell. We’ll also see if I’m right.

We took some profits on SLB and ACO today. SLB had run about 5 or 6 points in 2 weeks and ACO was trading up, but the volume wasnt there so I viwed it as a gift. probably bullish but the market started coming down and I lock in profits at all costs. Don’t worry, you will get used to me after a while. I almost pulled the trigger on PRGO but it acted well in the downturn. GRMN is still good as a short (put your stop in at $22) and I day traded it short for maybe 30-40 cents.

Bear with me as I try to improve the site, I would like to install a permanant Excel spreadsheet type of thing that will be updated daily on open names. In the meantime simply watch the recommendations and make note of the triggers, and dont try and FRONT RUN my trigger prices, they are there for a reason. Just because I might like a long play at 42 DOES NOT mean I like it at 41.25 or 41,60. These levels are there for a reason, I work very hard to find good triggers so don’t get cute. If you are a pro trader be my guest, many of you are not.

I am not near term bearish yet, but another weak day like today and you will start seeing some more short ideas. I do think the financials are ready to exhale but I need to see some more technicals. If I find some charts I will be back later. I’m trying my best to answer questions during trading hours but I’m trading, so bear with me. Try and keep it until after the close if possible.

I think we”re going to do very well this year, regardless of market conditions.

Previous Post
Next Post

Recent Articles