Wow, What A Surprise

Newsflash*********** Market went down, investors appalled, media circus ensues…..developing……..

Did anyone think we were going strait back to 14,000? Amazing to me, really. The ADP number was a disaster but the real number is out on Friday. If there is any recovery bounce tomorrow, I will short it as the recent unemployment number ‘eves” have been an excuse to sell. I don’t think tomorrow will be any different as we are still walking on egg shells in a very tentative market. The slightest unpleasantry will roll us over pretty quick. The sell buttons are usually right next to the buy buttons–at least they were when I last checked.

Oil is getting crushed as the global implosion fear is back. It never left yet people seemed surprised. Retail was under pressure and December sales will be reported tomorrow. They should be just swell.

Meredith Whitney, my Goddess of Truth, gave a needed reminder to the idiots that have been stepping all over each other to by financials, that things are still miserable at your local bank. She reminded us that banks will probably suffocate investors with more dilutive equity offerings and that the agencies may even throw in a few credit downgrades for good measure. I’ve been saying this for months and believe with my last breath that this will come to fruition. Don’t forget entire dividend eliminations. Dividend cuts were so 2008.

The financials as a result gave back gains and the commodity sector got spanked as global recessionary fears took center stage. Unless they close the Straits of Hormuz I think oil is going to $20-25 a barrel, but that’s just me. Commercial real estate and the homebuilders each gave up about 3.5 % today.

Just my own thought, but this market will not “bottom” until housing gets fixed, and housing won’t get fixed until unemployment stops going parabolic. You all know my thoughts on where unemployment goes, maybe 12-15%.

Enjoy the rallies when you can, but stay prepared for max pain.

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