UpsideTrader » xhb

The Morning Morsel-The Fed Isn’t Your Friend

UpsideTrader — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 11:30:17 +0000

How come Superman could stop bullets with his chest, but always ducked when someone threw a gun at him?

For those of you too young to remember, the Fed always used to whack you while you were sleeping. Something happened over the years, probably a social shift in an effort to be polite, thoughtful and correct. Kids can’t lose at dodge ball and the teachers union insists on marking all grades in purple these days, can’t hurt someone’s feelings with a red mark–kid might hit a bell tower with an Uzzi. Lately though, the Fed’s warnings have had warnings, every word meticulously considered, God forbid we we’re caught off guard anymore.

Yesterday however, the element of surprise returned, (very impolite) after a very long time, it happened after the close of trading, and one day before options expiration. Had to be Rahm’s idea, he couldn’t find a hooker in Bangkok on New Years Eve.

Hey, I dig the rate hike, it had to be done eventually, we’re not Japan like the bears think, although things do suck. I prefer cotton over silk anyway.

I shorted some more XHB and some FAS in the aftermarket and sold my commodity positions.. I may cover by lunch, we’ll see how it goes.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Economic

08:30 Jan CPI (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.7%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.8%), Jan CPI Core Index SA (last 220.774), Canada Dec Retail Sales

10:00 Mexico rate decision

Events

08:00 Fed’s Dudley to speak. Trades Ex-dividend: AVP $0.22, JNJ $0.49.

Earnings

Before the Open: AMWD, AGP, BRC, BAM, HMSY, HUN, IBI, JCP, LPNT, PAG, PCG, PNW, SHPGY, SRT.

The Wrap 12/9/09

UpsideTrader — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:30:45 +0000

The Week Ahead 11/2/09

UpsideTrader — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:00:01 +0000

Financials and Housing

UpsideTrader — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 11:20:00 +0000

Not only do I think the housing index will retest its lows, but I think it makes new lows. As a result, the financials could do the same. Home foreclosures are up 125% over last year and 25 million Americans owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Bill Gross thinks total write offs will total $ 1 TRILLION and only half of that has made it through the system. I’ve been saying for a while now that the banks have broken revenue models because of the implosion of sub prime(a big ticket for them) and the vaporizing of their derivative products like CDO’s. Sure, there are arguments for a bullish case I guess, but for my money, and I put it on the line everyday, I trust my scenario. Watch for more capital raising and obscene dilution.

Short and in Cash

UpsideTrader — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 16:44:00 +0000

I am not long at all here and I have a feeling next week could fade. I am short PCU,GLD and USO and will hold over the weekend and until further notice. I covered my XHB short for a nice little gain.

Can’t Take Housing Sector Seriously

UpsideTrader — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 20:05:00 +0000

XHB got banged up pretty good and went out near the low of the day and the housing sector looks iffy at best. The financials gave some back and Oracle just fell short on earnings and that is taking the stock and the QQQQ down pretty hard here. Oil rallied big and I am still up on my USO short with my stop in place. PCU went up again and I am about a point down on my average short price around $105. I think GLD can muster maybe another point or two to the upside,technically speaking, but will then resume its decline. Still bearish to be honest.

End Of Quarter Window Dressing

UpsideTrader — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 13:07:00 +0000

The market is down slightly on the durable goods number. The market may hang in until Friday as I would think the hedgies want to show that they are long the right stuff,particularly financials as the month and quarter ends. I think we will have a decent correction soon, probably next week. I think housing and XHB is a short on the recent rally.