“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt.”

-Cicero, 55 BC ( Courtesy -Hedgeye)

Crazy day. Why did the market cave and then rally through the highs of the day? Unemployment was a confusing number at first glance, even CNBC  looked like they had a cobra in their hands as they tried to decipher it, but these are the same people that keep you updated on Apple’s after market action when in fact the stock had been halted for 40 minutes. Anyway, it’s estimated that 660,000 left the workforce last month and a couple of million folks have just stopped looking for work. Let’s face it, it’s a jobless recovery, forget the numbers for now.

Consumer credit was telegraphed at 3PM yesterday and the market rallied. Confused? We don’t have an app for that.

Was the near term bottom put in? They never ring a bell at the bottom or the top, so the answer will come over time. Days or weeks. One thing is certain, the volatility is back, if you’re a trader you are loving it, if your buy and holder, well, just go back to your morning nap or grab another cup of joe.

Europe still weighs heavily on this market, but any good news over the weekend would definitely continue this short squeeze. The XLF broke a level that I have personally been watching since August, but it then rallied like a scalded monkey to the highs of the day. Really amazing.

Remember the credit default swaps on AIG? Toxic IOUS’s right? Well,there has been a 14% rise in credit default swaps,written to insure 54 “governments” since last September. How much leverage is in “those” swaps?

The IMF just did an analysis of the top six developed economies that have to make massive structural changes to their budgets over the next ten years and the U.S was on the list at six.

Was 1045 the near term low or just a vicious technical bounce that often happens in greatly oversold conditions? I think the 1020 level is in the cards, if not lower, in the meantime trade it, stuff is oversold.

Things are never as good or as bad as they seem, in life, or in the market, so patience will pay. Will the World Bank or the IMF step up if Portugal, Spain, Greece (peaked in 400BC), England or Ireland say “no mas”? Or will that even happen in the first place? I actually heard some “experts” say that that Euro may even cease to exist soon. The media is loving this , so do your own due dilly and make up your own mind. You’re not a sissy if you hold cash.

Will everyone lean on JPM ( I love the warrants around $12 or better) now that Dimon got a bigger bonus than Blankfein? LMAO

Enjoy the links and have a great weekend.

I never thought gold was anything but a good paper weight. Paulson choking, but he deserves a mulligan.

Greece is a walk in the park compared to Spain.

Unemployed for more than 26 weeks

CIA spies on corporate world.

You can’t like Brazil if you don’t like China.

Interesting view of Obama’s policy on Iran-Asia Times

Mind the Gap

How to play Greece.

Paulson on Lehman, at least he didn’t blame Bush.

The $6.3 trillion scam.

Hedgies lose 0.7% in January.

The man who could take down Merkel.

A scoop of double dip.

7 states that are worse off than Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland.

Soda Pop

Hysterical E-Trade baby outtakes.

Blizzard coming east

The city under sin city.

Forget college, send your kids to Hollywood.

Godfather runs the gang out of prison from Facebook.

The fat lady sings for Olberman

Scarborough on Olberman.

Early draft of the Constitution found in Philly.

The list of Academy nods.

My 500th global warming link, I just can’t help myself.

The 10 best business lunch joints in LA

Will Stern replace Cowell?

NBC and Black History month.

Man indicted for shooting his parrot.

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I reported this on twitter yesterday before most, as my news service is amazing and CNBC is still researching the Lincoln assassination, but why do I know it still strikes a nerve? I received many calls from friends on twitter that saw my post and they were actually petrified and wanted to know the exact location of the plane. Unless you are a New Yorker or were in the city that day, it’s very hard to understand the sensitivity that still resonates among us.

As someone who was on the 78 th floor of World Trade Center Tower One when the plane actually hit I get it. The fact that this administration doesn’t, is an entirely different story.

Futures are lower this morning as the swine flu story continues and the Fed has advised Citi and Bank Of America that they will need more money. Hmm.. Ken Lewis recently told us everything was swell and new money would not be a concern. So that begs the question-if  BAC needs more loot, what will be the deal with third runners up like ZION and maybe STI? I’ve learned one thing from this market and our experience these  past 18 months, you honestly can’t believe a thing anyone in a position of authority tells us. The banks are planning rebuttals as they desperately want to get off the government resuscitator and live their lives independent of Big Brother. Good luck with that.

Evidently I missed some fun long side action the last couple of days last week, but my mood is too happy and relaxed to be the cynic so I will just say that I hope everybody kicked ass last week and that you didn’t find yourselves leaning the wrong way. I’m still trying to figure out how WFC had “record” earnings and am conflicted on what is really under the covers there. GS thinks it’s a good time to sell stock again, smart move on their part, feed the ducks when they’re quacking I always say. Why is it eerily reminiscent to me though of when Blackstone and Fortress jumped out of the gate a couple years back when they sold their stock.

I’ve been coming down here for fifteen year and fell asleep to the sound of crashing waves—and residential real estate prices, as I had the local 24/7 real estate channel on. Buzzwords and phrases that I heard ad nauseum were “reduced again” “very motivated seller” “owner will finance” free golf for life”…….. Homes that I looked at down here four years ago are now trading at anywhere from 40 to 60% discounts and I’m talking sweet homes, on the water. Thankfully, I didn’t listen to the bonehead realtors back then that were drinking mass quantities of their own kool aid, thinking housing values would be an uninterrupted ascent on the stairway to heaven. Florida has always been referred to as “God’s waiting room” now I know why, especially if you bought at the top. I’d feel alot better being down 50% in stocks than I ever would be holding some of this stuff. I have the ability to make that back in stocks in reasonably short order, with housing I’m subjected to too many variables, quite a messy dynamic. This will last much longer than the geniuses on CNBC will tell you, I feel good putting my track record against theirs anyway.

Speaking of CNBC, (Crappy Nonsense By Charlatans–just made that up) they did a fairly good job of NOT telling the public the real deal about Stocktwits but I never expected anything “honest” from them anyway. Any entity that could make Cramer their “pointman” or “spokesperson” tells you all you really need to know. By my count, the network owes my buddy Soren Macbeth another 14:32 of fame as they ended the piece with a troglodyte from Morningstar, you know the mutual fund rating agency that had 5 stars on just about every fund they follow, even though over 90% of funds lost money in 2009. How dare they? That’s CNBC. Thankfully they owe us nothing and Soren and Howard Lindzon and all the good people on Stocktwits know that. Others though, can continue to get cutting edge info from Joe ” I wear orange polyester shirts from Botany 500″ Terranova, Karen “deer in headlights, I’m just a value player” Finerman, Tim “I’m long every emerging market every day even though the world is burning” Seymour, Guy “if there is a big volume day in a stock it always means the bottom and buy USB everyday” Adami, and all the others on the show that don’t understand that CASH and sometimes DOING NOTHING is also a phenomenal strategy.

OK, so I ranted a bit anyway, it’s my friggin’ blog.

I will be back at the screens Wednesday unless of course Somali pirates don’t hijack me going back to New York. The newsletter resumes next weekend and I apologize for the two week interruption as I’ve travelling. I will post tomorrow most likely at some point, have a great weekend and I miss you all.

CNBC should really think of portraying both side of the market a little more. They haven’t done anyone any favors for a good long time.