Reviewing The Week

Well the $SPX had a down day on Wednesday, but then composed itself and managed three sideways, consolidation days for the balance of the week. The $VIX had a dead cat bounce to the underside of its 50 day sma on Wednesday and Thursday, but was rejected from higher levels on Friday. The VIX hasn’t had a close above its 50 day since mid April.  Nice try bears.

vix3 300x197 Reviewing The Week

Biotech ($IBB) continues to look constructive and I still think we will see more M&A for the balance of the year.

ibb24 300x197 Reviewing The Week

Energy ($XLE) hit highs, but came down with everything else on Wednesday.  It tried to recover though at the end of the week.

xle16 300x198 Reviewing The Week

Financials ($XLF) still look decent to me and the banks held the 20day ma all week.

xlf41 300x198 Reviewing The Week

$GOOGL popped above a downtrend line last week and added 20 points.

goog13 300x188 Reviewing The Week

$AAPL may be starting to curl up here.  I think the fan boys are already getting curb space for the new phone.

aapl33 300x187 Reviewing The Week

$TWTR finally broke above some lateral resistance on Thursday with good volume and posted a bullish inside day on Friday. I think 45-47 is next.

twtr2 300x198 Reviewing The Week

The camcorder for your head ($GPRO) went public and ripped. I still think a couple of years from now it goes the way of the camcorder. Geeks may love this one, but they wont use it, because they are too busy getting cheese doodle dust on their laptops as they watch the world go by on a 15″ laptop.

I still think the best thing for this market would be a 3-5% pullback. It would shake out a little of the over-zealousness (not necessarily froth), and give us some better setup entries.

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Everybody’s Off the Mark

Analysts are so off the mark on their GDP projections that its not even funny. They do their own work, but they also take their lead from the Fed, which right now couldn’t make a correct prediction if they had tomorrow’s newspaper. Way off on their growth targets. Way off. The Fed has rarely been a great prognosticator. Remember Ben said we weren’t in a recession even though California was drifting into the Pacific and we were a breath away from Armageddon.

Well they say two down GDP quarters in a row means you are in a recession. Next quarter should be fun.

The market doesn’t care and continues to chug higher, but most economists are probably rethinking their day jobs right about now.

For now the market isn’t the economy, and its been that way for a while. Good for us. Rooting for a better second half on the GDP front.

Really? The weather?? Gimme a break.


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Solar Setups

solar 300x300 Solar Setups

Back in the 2008 time zone, solar stocks hit all time peaks and then crashed magnificently to earth. All supernovas. First Solar ($FSLR) crumbled from a high of 317 to a low of $11 by the middle of 2012. Sun Power  ($SPWR) went from $164 to a low of $3.71 just a year ago, not even.

So the question I ask is, was that the fake move and are we now embarking on the “real” move? Not sure, but money is chasing this sector right now.  How long it will last before they get bored and rotate somewhere else is anyone’s guess.

Whatever happens six months or a year from now is an unknown, but here are two names that are setting up bullishly. Personally I think it will go the way of the Betamax, but what do I know.

Stocktwits is all “atwtter” with SunEdison ($SUNE) and with good reason. The chart is setting up beautifully and the underlying technicals are setting up bullishly.

The daily chart is showing a bull flag after the stock broke out with volume last week.  Looking for 25-26, then higher.fslr4 Solar Setups

$FSLR is also in a bull flag and is right underneath downtrend line resistance. A move through 70 with volume gives you a target of mid- high 70′s.

Remember that many breakouts fail the first time, but entry on the pullback (back to breakout spot) is a good entry point.

fslr flag Solar Setups

Good luck next week.

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Bull Market Signs Are So Misunderstood

jack and diane1 300x231 Bull Market Signs Are So Misunderstood

Although I am a little cautious short term, its still a ridiculous secular bull market. Just amazing.

What the pundits get wrong are the very things that make a bull market.  Back in April they said the market was due for a 10-20% correction because IPO’s were too hot. Guess what? IPO’s happen in raging bull markets.  The Russell and Nasdaq corrected but are now near highs, just two months later.  Those dips need to be bought or you will never get in this market. Most don’t buy dips, they would rather chase performance, and that’s what drives prices higher in the end.

M&A activity is a bullish sign for markets from my point of view, but now the “pundits” are calling for a train wreck because we are seeing takeovers. I call bullshit. This is bullish stuff.

I would love a 10% correction so I could buy things all over again. Not so sure I’ll get it though.

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A Thing Of Beauty, But Be Careful Here

What a cool week it was. The bulls are ravenous and just keep pushing things higher. Yesterday was quad witching and $SPY paid its quarterly dividend. There is great action everywhere and even some momentum names came out of hibernation. Some are already up 20-30% off their early May lows.  Cloud, biotech, software as a disservice and IPO’s all are looking better. Nothing like a good shakeout.

So what’s up for next week? It’s the end of the trading month, the end of the quarter, and we put a fork in the first six months of the year.  Hard to believe we are half way home.  It’s possible that they run and gun this thing into the end of next week, but be careful because the $SPX is at the tippy top of its channel. Here’s a picture.

spx171 300x198 A Thing Of Beauty, But Be Careful Here

Can it break higher? Sure, why not, but this is NOT the place to be chasing anything.  Look for names that have been sold already, but are seeing constructive action in their charts.

Biotech is back with a vengeance and I’m seeing phenomenal setups all over the place in that space. Actually $IBB tried a breakout on Friday. Picture below. Nice base, looks higher too. Stocks like $RARE, $JAZZ, $CELG and $BMRN had nice moves.

ibb23 300x197 A Thing Of Beauty, But Be Careful Here

Many stocks in the energy space ($XLE) are way stretched, this happens a lot and they should not be chased. $AAPL looks a bit tired here.

I’m looking forward to next week and the second half of the year.

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