“I didn’t fail the test. I just found 100 ways to do it wrong.”-Ben Franklin
Dow: -53.42…
Nasdaq: -9.77… S&P: -5.18..
Markets look a little “roll-ee” here, but for the most part they continue to hang in there. I’m just chalking it up to slow summer action.
Things may not stay dull for long though, as there are a few important events coming our way. With a jam-packed calendar in September, nothing is immune from potential event risk.
Coming in September
The first debate of the U.S. presidential campaign. A Group of 20 (G20) central bank interest rate announcement nearly every other trading day. And a key meeting among commodity nations around the world.
That’s not to mention that September has typically been the worst one for stocks, negative since 1928. — So put that in your margin account and smoke it.
History may not repeat, but it often rhymes, and although there is no way to predict the outcome, its always good to play it safe. For me, that means smaller positions and tighter stops, at least until we can get a definitive direction again. Right now we’re pretty listless.
When it comes to the market, I’ve always slept with one eye open anyway, and I always think that a big fat Black Swan could take away the punch bowl without a moments notice. Why? Because in doing this for thirty years I’ve had many a punch bowl taken away without a moment’s notice.
The first major headline event to kick off the month’s festivities is August’s non-farm payrolls report, slated to be released on Friday. A strong number would potentially set the scene for a Federal Reserve rate hike when officials next meet on September 21
Biotech continues to act crappily. Yesterday it broke the 200 day moving average, but today it managed to hold the 50 day moving average. Let’s hope for the best on that front, as it is an important “risk on” sector, and its important for the market for this group to do well.
I started the new September P&l tonight, if you would like a copy of July, just shoot me an email at [email protected]
Have a great night. See you in the morning.