Triggered Stocks
GIL, SPLK, NBIX
New Potential Picks
None
Stops
OIH
Portfolio Review
Today we saw new triggers in GIL, SPLK and NBIX. WFM rose 1%. ACHN rose 1.4%. FB closed up slightly but is down 6% in after market after earnings. QIHU rose 7.3$. MDVN down 1.3%. BABA rose 1.9%. GMCR +2.3%. BIIB down 0.6%. EPAM +0.43%. AVNR flat. ACAD +3%. GIL + 1.6%. SPLK +6.4%. NBIX +4.8%.
Upside’s Commentary
The New Normal
What is a “Normal” number of plus-or-minus 1% days for the S&P 500? So far in 2014, we’ve had 31 days when the index rose or fell by 1% or more (15 ups, 16 downs). The annual average since 1950 is 51.5 days (26 up, 25 down), and 65.3 days (34 up, 31 down) in the supposedly sleepy period of 2010-2013. By either measure, we have some more volatility to come, presumably for good and for bad. Other useful facts: unusual moves in the S&P 500 – those of 2% or greater – happen just 6.5% of the time. And yes, there are some awfully fat tails, with daily moves as large as +12% (10/13/08) and -20% (10/19/87). Bottom line: if history is any guide, there could be as many as 20 more days in 2014 when stocks rise or fall by 1% or more. And considering there are only 45 trading days left in the year, which would be a noticeable increase in volatility.
Note***
Facebook is trading right around my stop at 73 in the after market. My advice (this is what I am doing), is to not get shaken out at the open and give it 45 minutes. Many times things get overdone at the open and I do like this one longer term.
The Technicals
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.60%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to 1973 and 1956 , with resistance at 2019 and 2070 . Tomorrow: the FOMC statement at 2pm.