Maybe I’m dead wrong, but I think we’re really close to a big rally.
1- The VIX does nothing here, implying that there is no real fear and perhaps rightly so this time.. The market hit all time highs and we are having an orderly pullback.
2- The 1o year is going down everyday, from 3% to a close today of 2.60%..no taper… the bond market is always right. Always.
3 -I am seeing way too many bullish charts, even though I have been getting nicked a little everyday it seems.
4- Subject to change, but as much moaning as people are doing about the financials, the XLF is only 70 cents off its highs. I also think $JPM bottomed today. See the volume and the bar.
5- The government wont shut down, mark my words. We did this dance already and we’ve already been downgraded. Go buy Somalian twig futures if your boxers are in a twist.
6- Europe is at the highs.
7- There is no inflation.
8- Yeah growth is tepid, but the fed is still very much in play. Good combination for a higher market.
9-The Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are still kissing highs. All time highs for the Russell.
10- Semiconductors are breaking out of 5 year highs.
11- Crude has dropped ten bucks in a month.
12- $SPX -The 20 day moving average is trying to cross up through the 50 day moving average. Not the other way around. (Good support 1680 level)
These are my thoughts. There is no complaint department.