“The fact that a great many people believe something is no guarantee of its truth.” W. Somerset Maugham, The Razors Edge
Everyone is talking and writing about $AAPL today, everyone on planet earth seems to have an opinion, I thought I saw a post from a Trappist monk on the Vatican website all pissed off by the action last week. Let's just say there is a confluence of negative events contributing to AAPL's woes right now.
1- Tax selling-This is probably partly true, or maybe just a cop out by the perma bulls. It does make sense though.
2- Evidently the China launch of the iPhone 5 was met with a deafening thud yesterday. Gene Muenster rationalizes the lack of store traffic to a few things: He said the phone was carried in twice as many stores than last time, so traffic just "looked" diluted. He also said, the stores were more organized, anticipating this launch, so pre-orders and special invitations were the culprit.
3- $AAPL will see much tighter margins going forward.
4- The growth players are leaving the stock, as we wait for the baton to be passed to the "value" players, we all know that the value guys move a turtle's pace. The battle cry that APPL isn't innovating anymore is growing roots.
6-Canabalization of themselves.
7- The products have finally become a commodity. It happened with $MSFT, $INTC, $CSCO and many others, why not $AAPL?
8- Droid phones are kicking some bad ass and taking names...... and market share.
9- There are more shapes and sizes to the product line now than a lincoln log set.
10- When was the last time you saw an $APPL downgrade? They are starting to come fast and furious now. Downgrade cycles suck when you're a trapped long.
11- Steve Job's two year blueprint is getting long in the tooth and is starting to grow hair.
Everything is great at a price and that's all that matters. We won't know for a little bit if $AAPL put in a double bottom yesterday or not. I nibbled ultra small yesterday, and my plan is to layer in on dips. I do believe though that the halcyon days for $AAPL are over. It will however be a great "trading" stock.
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