The Number

• Posted by UpsideTrader
• on January 9th, 2009

Today is the day we’ve all been waiting for and the market will certainly have its mettle tested. In my experience, cash is the best strategy on a day like today, at least until we find some footing. Good luck.

Here are some thoughts from Roubini:

The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. “The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009,” he said.

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