Napkin Investing

carl 300x200 Napkin Investing

“He’s the best back of the napkin investor around”.  That’s what Ackman said about Icahn today before he pulled a John Boehner and the waterworks started. If being a back of the napkin investor could give me Ichan’s year, sign me up.

Ackman over-promised and grossly under delivered today after putting fear in the $HLF longs yesterday on Bloomberg and CNBC. He brought a knife to gunfight today and brought a wet firecracker when he need a nuke.

I watched the entire call and at points laughed and almost felt sorry for the guy. He didn’t seem to have belief or passion with what he was saying. Maybe he’s just a shitty salesman. Today’s presentation showed you what $50 million in due diligence gets you. Lawyers, investigators, accounting firms. The list goes on. I’d rather use the napkin. Today was a major squeeze, but the street wasn’t picking up what Ackman was putting down.

It seemed that around noon, when Ackman took a ten minute break, the stock lit up to the upside.  Folks didn’t see the smoking gun and started buying. The buying continued and the stock ended up 25% for the day.

I don’t know what the end result will be with this, and I have no hat in the ring, but a trading lesson can be learned. Some times we can get to close, too in love with a name. So don’t fall in love with your shit.

Just adorable

hlf1 Napkin Investing


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A Big Biotech Week On Deck

ibb27 300x198 A Big Biotech Week On Deck

On Monday of last week the biotech sector ($IBB) opened higher, but then never really saw an uptick after that. By the end of trading on Thursday, things looked bad. Very bad.  Stocks like Biogen ($BIIB) managed to lose almost 30 points for the week. Same for ($JAZZ).

At one point $IBB had lost about 17 points for the week, and on Thursday, the $IBB lost its 50 day moving average. However on Friday, the etf managed to take back its 50 day ma. and the volume was also decent.

The Friday bounce in the biotech sector was important and also much needed. IBB will need to hold Thursday’s low for the bulls to stay in charge I think, and it may be tested this week as some big earnings reports in the sector will be released.  If earnings cooperate, then I think you can look at Thursday’s low as a decent short term bottom.

Look for earnings in the following biotech names next week:

$GILD – Wednesday after close

$BIIB – Wednesday before open

$CELG- Thursday before open

$ALXN -Thursday before open

$ILMN – Wednesday after close

$ITMN – Thursday after close

Good luck next week. Long BIIB, JAZZ

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Tough Day-War Sucks

Today was rough. The morning held some promise, but the the sellers took control as Russia shot down a plane on the Ukraine Russia boarder. There may have been 23 Americans on board. 208 people died.

Hours later, Israel attacked the Gaza strip by land, sea and air. This is all ugly folks and time to chill.

The media is having a blast with this. Its what they do. TURN OFF THE MEDIA IF YOU ARE IN THE MARKET.

The worst is probably over. Most of the time the markets actually rally after  war events happen.

The market needs to process this first.

Some technical damage was done today. The Russell 2o0o broke its 200 day moving average. This was big for the bears and if that index wants to keep it together, the bulls need to take that moving average back or the bears will continue to have their way.

iwm15 300x197 Tough Day War Sucks

I talk about the biotech sector often because its a risk on sector and its a great indicator of where money is going or leaving.  Right now its leaving fast. Check out IBB the etf.

ibb26 300x202 Tough Day War Sucks

IBB broke the 50 day moving average today and unless it recovers soon it will hit the 200 day moving average. Remember that this sector  is  part of the Nasdaq and can drag it down. The 200 day ma is around 234.  it closed today at 243.

I like corrections like this (I took losses)because its the best time to make my list. It gives you a chance to buy things cheaper. We’re still in a bull market so hang in there. Don’t panic, take losses if you have to. I took losses the last two days and I will tell you tell every move I am making over the next few days. We’re in this together. We need to look at the Russell as it is VERY oversold.

See you early in the trading room. Lets keep the trading room market oriented as best we can, we need all the eyeballs we can get. The key to the trading room is to put eyes on stocks. Its so valuable. You guys have made me money so lets try to keep it about stocks as best we can.



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OK, I’m pissed at Mr. Market. So many folks were bullish at the top. The S&P, the Nazzy and that old man index (the Dow) were ripping. The Russell has been a pig.  The last few days were a confluence of bearish events, almost black swanish.

Aunt Bea….Janet Yellen decided to opine from Brooklyn. This person runs THE FED.

Don’t steal my Aunt Bea term, I invented it, and I will sue you all for creative thinking infringement. Start your own fucking blog.

aunt bea 122x142 W.T.F.

janet 122x142 W.T.F.

They are both precious.

Aunt Bea will make you a blueberry pie, but Janet from Brooklyn, a borough that should have been nuked years ago, will wreck your p&L. The collective IQ of this borough is 75 and should be sent to Appalachia along with the Sta-in Islanders.  They try like the Housewives of Atlanta. I’m rooting for them.

So what happened today to the market? It got crushed.

So our Fed president, Janet Yellen ( Aunt Bea)  hates biotech, Russia shoots down a plane over Ukraine (is it “The” Ukraine? , I don’t know), and Israel launches a full scale attack on Gaza.  This is a land, sea and air attack by Israel. . Boots all over the ground, the Israeli’s want these tunnels that Hamas is using. These folks have been fighting since the Age of Pericles and it will never end.  Lets not be surprised that this happened. Enough from these two. Really, just stop your shit. It’s getting old and its pissing people off globally. Enough.

Obama is a clown of biblical proportions. Shit is coming undone everywhere and the guy is nowhere. Frankly I personally care nary a fucking wit about the Mideast, its their battle, not mine. I hope Iraq implodes and I never want see one of our men at risk again.   I care about my  own border which has been reduced to fucking cheesecloth.

I am trying to figure out a strategy tonight.

Lets go trade the second half together. It’s Navy Seal trading time. No prisoners.

Right here.

I don’t do free trials for multitude of reasons, so don’t ask.

You can email me for performance.







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