This week is always like the Cannes Film Festival for traders and eco. geeks. Everyone gets to opine and prognosticate. It seems that market players have been buying “ahead” of the fed and a dovish Bernanke. I think gentle Ben will try to pull back on harsh wording and any hawkish rhetoric. This is the most hated rally in history , but it’s also the most highly telegraphed pending change of Fed policy since Noah’s Ark.
There won’t be any shock today, so chill. Ben’s goal is still 6.5% unemployment and that ain’t happening. Just ask ex Wall Street analysts that are now laying mulch for Happy Farms Landscaping.
Personally, I would have preferred to see selling going into “Fed Day” instead of buying, because the move of the last two days could set up a sell the news situation. Maybe, maybe not. The market still hasn’t necessarily embraced good news as good news yet. That needs to change, so when the rate hikes do eventually come, the underpinnings of the market don’t implode. Lets get off the heroin drip for God’s sake.
We need to start thinking of a nickname for Janet Yellen, as the baton will most certainly get passed to her once Ben departs, hires Greenspan’s publicist, and starts making gobs of obscene money on the cocktail party speaking circuit.
Everyone seems to forget that Greenspan did in fact raise rates 14 times before he split. Fed officials stopped saying rates may rise at a “measured” pace, and that further increases may be needed. The “measured pace” phrase was taken away. It happened then and it will happen again. You can take that to the bank.
When Bernanke speaks today , every noun, adjective and eyebrow twitch will be under a microscope. It’s all quite goofy. Good luck today.
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